华北地区金融发展与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2019-03-07 18:57

【摘要】：自从1978年我国改革开放以来，华北地区（京、津、冀、晋、内蒙）的经济步入快速发展车道，经济增长态势明显并持续发展，同时，金融业也得到了不断地发展和壮大，金融资产总量不断增加，由改革开放初期时较为单一的体系，发展成为现如今机构设置及金融业务种类比较齐全的系统，金融业的日益发展壮大正在成为华北地区经济增长的中坚力量。但是目前，由于一些客观原因影响金融市场化的发展进程，金融部门对经济资源的优化配置的作用还未充分显现，金融改革的任务仍较艰巨。本文将通过统计调查和实证分析，对华北地区金融发展对经济增长的长期相关程度和发展形式进行分析研究，并深入分析金融发展中到底的哪些要素与经济增长密切相关，并且在多大程度上影响着经济增长等问题，以及如何促进华北地区更有利于实现二者的均衡全面发展，本文将对此进行研究和解答。本文主要采用“实证分析与规范分析、定性和定量分析相结合”方法：以经济增长与金融发展理论为基础，通过对华北地区近年来的经济金融发展现状进行调查统计，根据历史数据建立面板模型进行实证分析，，找出发展呈现的特点，并提出促进华北地区实现经济金融更快发展的政策建议。通过对华北5省市的历史数据进行了两种计量检验，分别是单位根检验和协整检验，以证明指标所反映的经济含义是具有代表性的，指标数据之间是显著相关的和长期稳定的，从而确保数据分析的可靠性。对金融发展与经济增长因素关系的面板模型进行计量分析，较全面的反映了华北地区金融发展与经济增长之间的关系。以华北5省市2002年至2011年的十年数据为基础，对影响经济增长的金融发展因素进行了实证研究。在指标的选择方面，本文采用更能全面反映华北地区金融发展实际情况的四个计量指标：金融相关率、证券深度、保险深度和金融市场深度；对于经济增长指标的选择，本文以人均GDP来衡量经济增长。随后，对华北地区5省市自治区的经济金融现状进行了定量统计分析，而在实证研究过程中，主要分析华北地区5省市的经济增长与金融发展的实证关系。首先，用实证方法的选取与指标的选择，然后是根据所选指标建立面板模型；其次，对5省市的截面模型进行单位根检验，检验数据是否平稳；然后，对模型进行相关协整检验，检验金融发展与经济增长是否存在线性相关性；最后，对建立的面板模型进行估计，并主要从三个方面对估计结果进行分析，一是金融发展的经济增长效应，二是金融发展的区域效应，三是金融发展的时间趋势效应。通过实证分析和检验得出，华北地区金融发展对经济增长均呈现正相关关系，但影响金融发展的不同因素对于经济增长的作用有所差异，但基本都以金融规模作为经济增长的首要因素，证券和保险也紧随其后，金融市场虽居于末位，但仍对经济增长起到了重要的作用。其中，北京、天津、山西的固定效应为正值，河北、内蒙古的固定效应为负值，这说明金融发展对经济增长的区域效应与地理位置并无太大关系。由于国家的各项支持经济金融发展政策的出台和金融生态环境的逐步改善等积极措施，使得华北地区经济快速发展的同时，加强环首都经济圈金融发展与建设，通过提升金融发展水平从而推动经济增长的意图得到显现，同时，这一促进效应也在逐年不断增强。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up in China in 1978, the economy of the North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jin and Inner Mongolia) has entered the rapid development lane, the economic growth situation is obviously and sustained, and at the same time, the financial industry has been continuously developed and expanded, and the total amount of financial assets has increased continuously. Since the beginning of the reform and opening-up period, it has become a system of relatively complete set-up and financial business, and the development of the financial industry is becoming the backbone of the economic growth in North China. But at present, because some objective reasons affect the development of the financial market, the role of the financial sector in the optimal allocation of economic resources has not been fully developed, and the task of financial reform is still difficult. This paper will analyze and study the long-term correlation degree and development form of financial development in North China through statistical survey and empirical analysis, and deeply analyze which factors in the financial development are closely related to economic growth. And how to promote the economic growth and so on, and how to promote the balanced and comprehensive development of the two in North China, this paper will study and answer this. This paper mainly adopts the "The combination of empirical analysis and normative analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis" method: based on the theory of economic growth and financial development, through the investigation and statistics of the present situation of the economic and financial development in recent years in North China, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the panel model based on the historical data, and finds out the development of the present. Point, and put forward the policy construction to promote the rapid development of economic finance in North China This paper discusses the historical data of the five provinces and cities in North China, which is the unit root test and the co-integration test, respectively, to prove that the economic meaning reflected by the index is representative and the index data is significantly related and long-term stable, so as to ensure the reliability of the data analysis. The panel model of the relationship between financial development and economic growth factors is analyzed, and the correlation between financial development and economic growth in North China is more fully reflected Based on the data of the ten-year data from 2002 to 2011 in the five provinces and cities of North China, the financial development factors that affect the growth of the economy are real In terms of the selection of the index, the paper uses four measures to reflect the actual situation of the financial development in North China: the financial correlation, the depth of the securities, the depth of the insurance and the depth of the financial market. The economic and financial situation of the five provinces and cities in North China is analyzed quantitatively, and the economic growth and financial development of the five provinces and cities in North China are mainly analyzed in the course of the empirical study. The empirical relationship between the model and the selection of the index is first, then the panel model is established according to the selected index; secondly, the unit root test is carried out on the cross-section model in 5 provinces and cities to check whether the data is stable; then, the model is compared In this paper, the linear correlation between financial development and economic growth is checked, and the model of the established panel is estimated, and the estimation results are mainly analyzed from three aspects, one is the economic growth effect of financial development, and the other is the financial development. The regional effect, the third of the financial development Through empirical analysis and inspection, the financial development in North China has a positive correlation with economic growth, but the different factors that affect the financial development are different from the effect of economic growth, but are basically the financial scale as the economy The first factor in growth is that securities and insurance have followed closely, while financial markets are at the end of the year, but the economy is still growing The fixed effect of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanxi is positive, and the fixed effect of Hebei and Inner Mongolia is negative, which indicates the regional effect and geographical position of financial development on economic growth With the development of the economic and financial development policies and the step-by-step improvement of the financial ecological environment, the economic circle of the capital is strengthened, as the state supports the development of the economic and financial development and the gradual improvement of the financial and ecological environment. Financial development and construction, through the promotion of the level of financial development and thus the intention of economic growth, are shown, and the effect of the promotion is also
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F832.7;F224

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