我国城镇中等收入群体规模变动的统计分析

发布时间：2019-03-21 14:15

【摘要】：投资、消费和净出口是拉动国民经济增长的三驾马车，在当前的情况下，投资需要耗费大量的资源，且具有盲目性；由于人民币升值和人力资本上升，我国的出口品逐渐丧失成本上的优势，净出口的前景不容乐观；另一方面，我国是全世界人口最多的国家，也就是说我国拥有最大的消费市场，因此拉动消费、刺激内需是拉动国民经济增长的重要途径。城镇中等收入群体具有超前的消费意识和良好的消费能力，是拉动我国消费增长的主力军，本文以此为契机，对中等收入群体进行界定，运用逆变换法模拟城镇居民人均消费支出的分布，进而测算城镇中等收入群体的规模，得到历年城镇中等收入群体的比重；再通过分析城镇中等收入群体的特征以及其影响因素，得出相关因素对中等收入群体规模的影响机制，接着构建多元线性回归模型和变系数回归模型，对城镇中等收入群体的规模变动进行结构分析，，以期得到：相关因素是如何对城镇中等收入群体的规模产生影响的，影响效果在时间序列上又是如何变动的。最后根据分析结果提出针对性的对策，以促进城镇中等收入群体规模的扩大，从而刺激消费、扩大内需，为国民经济健康持续发展提供动力。
[Abstract]:The investment, consumption and net export are the three-driving carriages that pull the growth of the national economy. In the present case, the investment needs a lot of resources and has blindness; due to the appreciation of the RMB and the rise of the human capital, our exports gradually lose the cost advantage. The prospect of net export is not optimistic; on the other hand, our country is the most populous country in the world, that is, our country has the largest consumer market, thus pulling consumption and stimulating domestic demand is an important way to pull the growth of the national economy. The urban middle-income group has advanced consumption consciousness and good consumption ability, which is the main force to pull the consumption growth of our country. In this article, the middle-income group is defined, and the distribution of the per-capita consumption expenditure of the urban residents is simulated by the inverse transformation method. then, the scale of the middle-income group in the town is calculated, the specific gravity of the middle-income group in the cities and towns is obtained, the influence mechanism of the relevant factors on the scale of the middle-income group is obtained through analyzing the characteristics of the middle-income groups in the towns and the influencing factors, Then, a multi-element linear regression model and a variable coefficient regression model are built, and the scale change of the middle-income group in the town is analyzed, with a view to obtaining the influence of the related factors on the scale of the middle-income group in the town, and how the effect is changed in the time series. Finally, based on the results of the analysis, the aim is to promote the expansion of the scale of middle-income groups in the cities and towns, so as to stimulate consumption, expand domestic demand and provide impetus to the sustainable development of the national economy.
【学位授予单位】：兰州商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.7

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