基于灰色系统理论的湖南省经济产业结构研究
发布时间：2019-04-02 14:38
【摘要】：摘要：二十一世纪,受到世界金融危机的空前大挑战,经济成为全球关注的中心,经济产业结构是其包含的一项重要内容。同时一个地区的经济产业结构对当地经济的发展具有十分重要的意义,也是一个和谐社会稳定发展的重要因素之一。 灰色系统理论在经济的运行和科学研究中具有很大的使用价值以及广泛的应用前景,在分析少数据特征的现象前提上,发现少数据、少信息背景下事物的变化规律,以此提供依据为促进产业经济合理布局和资源优化利用等。 本文从研究湖南省经济产业着手,讨论了湖南省经济和产业结构的现状,运用OCGM (1,1)系统灰预测对今后几年经济的产值和产业结构进行了预测,并在此基础上利用灰色关联分析和主成分分析研究了第一、二、三产业之间的内在关系与相互影响因素,之后利用灰色发展决策对湖南省经济产业结构进行了决策分析,以此把握湖南省经济产业结构的发展方向,并提出了产业结构的优化建议。还将OCGM(1,1)预测模型和一般的GM(1,1)预测模型的预测结果进行了比较与分析,结果显示前者比后者在预测精度上有明显优势。论文中的数据来源于中国统计年鉴和湖南省统计年鉴。 同时,本文的撰写希望能对湖南省经济产业结构的分析、研究、预测与决策工作提供依据。在本文的写作过程中,用产值来衡量经济产业结构的变化,用数据来说明问题。论文从实际情况出发,合理运用灰色系统理论、多元统计分析以及计量经济学等多种学科知识,是理论与实际的结合体。图11幅,表25个,参考文献60篇。
[Abstract]:Abstract: In the twenty-first century, under the unprecedented challenge of the world financial crisis, the economy has become the center of global attention, and the economic structure of the economy is an important content it contains. At the same time, the economic structure of a region is of great significance to the development of the local economy, and is one of the important factors for the stable development of a harmonious society. The grey system theory has great use value and wide application prospect in the operation and scientific research of economy, and on the premise of analyzing the phenomenon of few data features, the change rules of things under the background of little data and little information are found. Law, in order to provide the basis for promoting the rational distribution of the industrial economy and the utilization of resources This paper starts with the research of Hunan economy industry, discusses the present situation of Hunan economy and industrial structure, and uses OCGM (1,1) system gray forecast to forecast the output value and industrial structure of the economy in the next few years. In this paper, the relationship between the first, the second and the third industry and the mutual influence factors are studied by using the gray correlation analysis and the principal component analysis, and then the economic structure of Hunan economy is determined by the grey development decision. The paper analyses the development of the economic structure of Hunan province, and puts forward the advantages of the industrial structure. The prediction results of the GM (1,1) prediction model and the general GM (1,1) prediction model are compared and analyzed. The results show that the former is more accurate than the latter in the prediction accuracy. The data in the paper is derived from the China Statistical Yearbook and the Hunan Province. At the same time, the author hopes to be able to analyze, study, forecast and decision-making of the economic structure of Hunan Province. In the process of writing, the output value is used to measure the change of the economic structure and the data. On the basis of the actual situation, the paper makes a rational use of the grey system theory, the multivariate statistical analysis and the econometrics, etc., and it is the theory and practice. The combination of the interdecals. Figure 11, Table 25, Reference
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;N941.5
本文编号：2452635
[Abstract]:Abstract: In the twenty-first century, under the unprecedented challenge of the world financial crisis, the economy has become the center of global attention, and the economic structure of the economy is an important content it contains. At the same time, the economic structure of a region is of great significance to the development of the local economy, and is one of the important factors for the stable development of a harmonious society. The grey system theory has great use value and wide application prospect in the operation and scientific research of economy, and on the premise of analyzing the phenomenon of few data features, the change rules of things under the background of little data and little information are found. Law, in order to provide the basis for promoting the rational distribution of the industrial economy and the utilization of resources This paper starts with the research of Hunan economy industry, discusses the present situation of Hunan economy and industrial structure, and uses OCGM (1,1) system gray forecast to forecast the output value and industrial structure of the economy in the next few years. In this paper, the relationship between the first, the second and the third industry and the mutual influence factors are studied by using the gray correlation analysis and the principal component analysis, and then the economic structure of Hunan economy is determined by the grey development decision. The paper analyses the development of the economic structure of Hunan province, and puts forward the advantages of the industrial structure. The prediction results of the GM (1,1) prediction model and the general GM (1,1) prediction model are compared and analyzed. The results show that the former is more accurate than the latter in the prediction accuracy. The data in the paper is derived from the China Statistical Yearbook and the Hunan Province. At the same time, the author hopes to be able to analyze, study, forecast and decision-making of the economic structure of Hunan Province. In the process of writing, the output value is used to measure the change of the economic structure and the data. On the basis of the actual situation, the paper makes a rational use of the grey system theory, the multivariate statistical analysis and the econometrics, etc., and it is the theory and practice. The combination of the interdecals. Figure 11, Table 25, Reference
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;N941.5
【参考文献】
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