我国省际间经济赶超的实证研究
发布时间：2019-04-19 23:09
【摘要】：21世纪国家间的竞争是以经济实力和科技实力为后盾的综合国力的竞争，然而，世界各国的经济发展不平衡现象并没有随着旧世纪的逝去有所改变；新古典增长理论、发展经济学、后发优势论以及后来的华盛顿共识和北京共识等，成为各国经济趋同提供理论基础或成为某些国家经济快速发展的经验总结；战后德国、日本的重新崛起，亚洲“四小龙”、中国、印度、葡萄牙、巴西等国家的经济起飞和快速实现工业化的巨大成果，是激动人心。它们的成功为经济赶超和趋同理论提供了实例，因此，运用经济赶超理论来分析我国省际间的经济赶超状况，是非常有必要的。 首先，本文简要探讨了赶超机制和不同经济发展理论中赶超思想，从演化经济学的视角，将变异和选择机制作为经济赶超的机制，并详细地从制度创新和知识的重大突破角度解释了赶超机制。接着，笔者分析了我国省级间经济赶超的状况和原因，发现特定的地区优势、资本回报率差异、市场化程度差异和技术水平差异对于地区经济的赶超有重要影响。然后，以阿布拉莫维茨赶超假说为基础，使用F·FargettiA·Foti （1997）赶超模型和新古典经济赶超模型验证了我国27个省级间（以上海作为经济领导者）的赶超状况以及造成经济差距的原因，运用1978-2010年和1995-2010年面板数据进行实证检验发现，我国省际间存在经济趋同现象，但是趋同效应比较微弱；各省份间经济差距的主要是由于人均资本量的差异引起的。此外，，运用包络分析法对2001年-2010年我国各省份的技术效率变化，发现我国东部地区的技术效率高于中部和西部地区，这对我国的各地区的经济趋同产生消极影响。 本文的结论是：（1）我国省际间的经济赶超效应是存在的，但是赶超效应比较微弱；（2）造成我国省级间经济差距的主要原因是自然条件、政策倾斜和特殊的地理位置等特定的历史要素，也包括资本效率差异、市场发育程度差异和技术水平差异等因素。（3）在比较资本、技术水平和其他因素对地区经济差举造成的影响，发现资本是造成地区经济差距的最大因素，也是影响落后地区经济赶超的重要因素；技术水平没有所认为的那么重要，其对地区经济差距或经济赶超的贡献远远小于资本。（4）从不同地区的技术水平来看，东部的技术进步水平快于中部地区和西部地区，中部地区又快于西部地区。
[Abstract]:The competition among countries in the 21st century is the competition of comprehensive national strength backed by economic strength and scientific and technological strength. However, the imbalance of economic development in all countries in the world has not changed with the passing of the old century. Neoclassical growth theory, development economics, late dominance theory and later Washington consensus and Beijing consensus, etc., have become the theoretical basis for the economic convergence of various countries or the experience summary of the rapid economic development of some countries. The economic take-off and rapid industrialization of Germany, Japan, Asia, China, India, Portugal, Brazil and other countries are exciting. Their success provides an example for the theory of economic catch-up and convergence. Therefore, it is very necessary to use the theory of economic catch-up to analyze the situation of economic catch-up among provinces in China. First of all, this paper briefly discusses the catch-up mechanism and the thought of catching-up in different economic development theories. From the perspective of evolutionary economics, the mechanism of variation and selection is regarded as the mechanism of economic catch-up. And explain the catch-up mechanism in detail from the perspective of institutional innovation and knowledge breakthrough. Then, the author analyzes the status and reasons of economic catch-up among provinces in China, and finds out that specific regional advantages, differences in return on capital, differences in marketization and technological level have an important impact on regional economic catch-up. Then, based on Abramowitz's catch-up hypothesis, Using F 路FargettiA 路Foti (1997) catch-up model and neo-classical economic catch-up model, this paper verifies the status of catching-up among 27 provinces in China (with Shanghai as the economic leader) and the reasons for the economic gap. Based on the panel data from 1978-2010 and 1995-2010, it is found that there exists economic convergence among provinces in China, but the convergence effect is relatively weak. The economic gap between provinces is mainly due to the difference of capital per capita. In addition, it is found that the technical efficiency of the eastern region of China is higher than that of the central and western regions, which has a negative impact on the economic convergence of the various regions of China by applying envelope analysis to the technical efficiency change of every province in China from 2001 to 2010. The conclusion of this paper is as follows: (1) the economic catch-up effect between provinces of our country exists, but the catch-up effect is relatively weak; (2) the main causes of the economic gap between the provinces of our country are natural conditions, policy tilt and special geographical location, including the differences in capital efficiency, as well as the specific historical factors, such as natural conditions, policy preference and special geographical location. (3) comparing the influence of capital, technical level and other factors on regional economic disparity, it is found that capital is the biggest factor causing regional economic disparity. It is also an important factor that affects the economic catch-up of backward areas; The level of technology is not as important as it thinks, and its contribution to regional economic disparity or economic catch-up is far less than capital. (4) judging from the level of technology in different regions, the level of technological progress in the eastern region is faster than in the central and western regions. The central region is faster than the western region.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224
本文编号：2461374
[Abstract]:The competition among countries in the 21st century is the competition of comprehensive national strength backed by economic strength and scientific and technological strength. However, the imbalance of economic development in all countries in the world has not changed with the passing of the old century. Neoclassical growth theory, development economics, late dominance theory and later Washington consensus and Beijing consensus, etc., have become the theoretical basis for the economic convergence of various countries or the experience summary of the rapid economic development of some countries. The economic take-off and rapid industrialization of Germany, Japan, Asia, China, India, Portugal, Brazil and other countries are exciting. Their success provides an example for the theory of economic catch-up and convergence. Therefore, it is very necessary to use the theory of economic catch-up to analyze the situation of economic catch-up among provinces in China. First of all, this paper briefly discusses the catch-up mechanism and the thought of catching-up in different economic development theories. From the perspective of evolutionary economics, the mechanism of variation and selection is regarded as the mechanism of economic catch-up. And explain the catch-up mechanism in detail from the perspective of institutional innovation and knowledge breakthrough. Then, the author analyzes the status and reasons of economic catch-up among provinces in China, and finds out that specific regional advantages, differences in return on capital, differences in marketization and technological level have an important impact on regional economic catch-up. Then, based on Abramowitz's catch-up hypothesis, Using F 路FargettiA 路Foti (1997) catch-up model and neo-classical economic catch-up model, this paper verifies the status of catching-up among 27 provinces in China (with Shanghai as the economic leader) and the reasons for the economic gap. Based on the panel data from 1978-2010 and 1995-2010, it is found that there exists economic convergence among provinces in China, but the convergence effect is relatively weak. The economic gap between provinces is mainly due to the difference of capital per capita. In addition, it is found that the technical efficiency of the eastern region of China is higher than that of the central and western regions, which has a negative impact on the economic convergence of the various regions of China by applying envelope analysis to the technical efficiency change of every province in China from 2001 to 2010. The conclusion of this paper is as follows: (1) the economic catch-up effect between provinces of our country exists, but the catch-up effect is relatively weak; (2) the main causes of the economic gap between the provinces of our country are natural conditions, policy tilt and special geographical location, including the differences in capital efficiency, as well as the specific historical factors, such as natural conditions, policy preference and special geographical location. (3) comparing the influence of capital, technical level and other factors on regional economic disparity, it is found that capital is the biggest factor causing regional economic disparity. It is also an important factor that affects the economic catch-up of backward areas; The level of technology is not as important as it thinks, and its contribution to regional economic disparity or economic catch-up is far less than capital. (4) judging from the level of technology in different regions, the level of technological progress in the eastern region is faster than in the central and western regions. The central region is faster than the western region.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224
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