陕西省碳排放特征与未来减排潜力研究

发布时间：2019-05-09 07:11

【摘要】：全球气候变化是人类迄今面临的最重大环境问题，中国是世界上碳排放最多的国家，低碳发展既是中国政府对日益增强的国际减排压力的回应，也是中国转变经济增长方式的内在要求。2010年8月，国家发改委正式开展低碳试点工作，根据试点省市有关低碳发展的工作积累，以及试点在全国的代表性，最终包括陕西省在内的“五省八市”被列为第一批低碳试点省市。陕西省作为生态环境脆弱，经济欠发达的能源大省，对我国发展低碳经济具有研究典型性。本文利用《省级温室气体清单编制指南》中的方法，对2001年到2010年陕西省碳排放进行了计算，采用比较分析法，总结了我国第一批五个低碳试点省份在碳排放总量、人均碳排放量、碳排放强度、碳排放构成方面的差异。由于终端能源消费集中在产业部分和居民生活部分，本文建立平均迪氏指数模型（LMDI）对陕西省产业部门特别是工业36个部门的碳排放特征进行了分析，并利用消费者生活方式法（CLA）分析了陕西省城镇和农村居民生活行为对二氧化碳排放的影响。最后，，本文利用STIRPAT模型和岭回归的方法，设置了9个情景对2015-2025年陕西省碳排放进行了预测，对陕西省产业结构调整和能源结构调整的碳减排潜力进行了估算。研究发现：（1）2001到2010年，陕西省二氧化碳排放总量呈上升趋势。2006到2010年间，陕西省碳排放总量较少，仅高于云南省，而人均碳排放量较高，仅低于老工业基地辽宁省。陕西省碳排放强度处于下降的趋势，仅低于经济发展水平较低的云南省。（2）2006年到2010年，产业增加值效应和能源效率效应对陕西省产业部门碳排放变化量的作用显著，其中以第二产业的贡献率最高。（3）陕西省减缓产业部门的CO2排放增长速度应重点放在工业部门，尤其是“电力、热力的生产和供应业”、“有色金属冶炼及压延加工业”、“非金属矿物制品业”、“石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业”及“化学原料及化学制品制造业”这5个部门。（4）2010年陕西省城乡居民生活行为CO2总排放占当年能源消费总碳排放的22.1%，城镇居民生活行为造成的间接排放为其直接排放的1.22倍，农村居民生活行为造成的直接排放为其间接排放的3.56倍。（5）保持人口，经济，城市化的适度发展，同时加大产业结构调整力度，大力推进技术进步，并有效促进能源消费结构优化是陕西省实现经济社会低碳发展的有效途径。
[Abstract]:Global climate change is by far the most important environmental problem facing mankind. China is the world's most carbon-emitting country, and low-carbon development is not only the response of the Chinese Government to the growing international pressure to reduce emissions, In August 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission formally launched a low-carbon pilot work, according to the accumulation of work on low-carbon development in the pilot provinces and municipalities, as well as the representativeness of the pilot in the whole country. Finally, including Shaanxi Province, five provinces and eight cities were listed as the first batch of low-carbon pilot provinces and cities. Shaanxi Province, as an energy province with fragile ecological environment and underdeveloped economy, is typical of developing low-carbon economy in China. In this paper, the carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province from 2001 to 2010 are calculated by using the method of "guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories at the provincial level", and the total carbon emissions in the first five low-carbon pilot provinces in China are summarized by the method of comparative analysis. Differences in carbon emissions, intensity and composition of carbon emissions per capita. Because the terminal energy consumption is concentrated in the industrial part and the resident life part, this paper establishes the average Di's index model (LMDI) to analyze the carbon emission characteristics of the industrial sector, especially the 36 industrial sectors in Shaanxi Province. The influence of life behavior on carbon dioxide emissions of urban and rural residents in Shaanxi Province was analyzed by consumer lifestyle method (CLA). Finally, using the STIRPAT model and ridge regression method, nine scenarios were set up to predict the carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2025, and the carbon emission reduction potential of the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure in Shaanxi Province was estimated. The results are as follows: (1) from 2001 to 2010, the total carbon dioxide emissions in Shaanxi Province showed an upward trend. From 2006 to 2010, the total carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province were less, which were only higher than those in Yunnan Province, while the per capita carbon emissions were higher, only lower than those in Liaoning Province, the old industrial base. The intensity of carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province is in a downward trend, which is only lower than that in Yunnan Province, which has a low level of economic development. (2) from 2006 to 2010, the effect of industrial value added and energy efficiency on the change of carbon emissions in the industrial sector of Shaanxi Province was significant. Among them, the secondary industry has the highest contribution rate. (3) Shaanxi Province should focus on the industrial sector to slow down the growth rate of CO2 emissions, especially the "production and supply of electricity and thermal power", "non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry," and "non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry". "non-metallic mineral products industry", "Petroleum processing, Coking and nuclear fuel processing industry "and" chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing "these five sectors. (4) in 2010, the total CO2 emissions of urban and rural residents in Shaanxi Province accounted for 22.1% of the total carbon emissions of that year's energy consumption. The indirect emission caused by the living behavior of the urban residents is 1.22 times that of the direct emission, and the direct emission caused by the living behavior of the rural residents is 3.56 times that of the indirect emission. (5) maintain the moderate development of the population, economy and urbanization. At the same time, increasing the adjustment of industrial structure, vigorously promoting technological progress, and effectively promoting the optimization of energy consumption structure is an effective way to achieve low-carbon economic and social development in Shaanxi Province.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.5

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