我国城镇化与经济增长的非线性关系分析——基于PSTR模型

发布时间：2019-05-14 01:03

【摘要】：文章基于我国30个省、市、自治区1990-2012年的面板数据,采用面板平滑转换(PSTR)模型研究了我国城镇化与经济增长间的非线性关系;选取滞后城镇化率、产业结构和能源消费作为阈值变量,使用工具变量法估计模型,其主要实证研究结果为:除低水平的人均能源消费量情况外,三个非线性模型都显示城镇化和经济增长间的正相关关系;随着城镇化水平的提升,城镇化对经济增长的弹性会下降,而随着第三产业比重和人均能源消费量的增加,该弹性会增加;弹性数值随着时间的推移呈现增加趋势,到2010年开始呈现下降趋势。文章最后分析了不同地区弹性系数值的差异情况。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from 1990 to 2012, this paper studies the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and economic growth in China by using the panel smooth transformation (PSTR) model. The lagging urbanization rate, industrial structure and energy consumption are selected as threshold variables, and the tool variable method is used to estimate the model. The main empirical results are as follows: in addition to the low level of per capita energy consumption, All three nonlinear models show the positive correlation between urbanization and economic growth. With the improvement of urbanization level, the elasticity of urbanization to economic growth will decrease, while with the increase of the proportion of tertiary industry and per capita energy consumption, the elasticity will increase. Elastic values show an increasing trend with the passage of time, and began to show a downward trend in 2010. Finally, the difference of elastic coefficient in different regions is analyzed.
【作者单位】：北京交通大学经济管理学院;天津科技大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD026) 国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC20B08) 国家自然科学基金项目(71073009)
【分类号】：F299.21;F124.1;F224

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