四川省劳动力参与率与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2019-05-19 08:35

【摘要】：近些年来,劳动力参与率成为学者们争相研究的问题,无论是从就业形势还是人口红利机遇期的角度,劳动力参与率都是不得不提的指标。就业人口数量的增加会直接提高劳动力参与率,反之劳动力参与率的提高也会在一定程度上反映就业形势的良好；此外,只有当劳动力参与率保持在较高水平,同时失业率维持在较低水平,才能充分地发挥人口年龄结构带来的优势,显示出人口红利对经济增长的促进作用,进而加快中国经济的增长。本文立足四川省的经济发展,从劳动力参与率入手,考虑我省劳动力参与率与经济增长的关系,进而以劳动力参与率的分析研究为出发点来促进我省经济快速稳定发展。基于以上思考,本文将分六个部分。第一部分是绪论,主要介绍本文的研究目的、意义和技术手段,以及可能的创新点。第二部分是文献综述。第三部分是对我省劳动力参与率进行描述性统计分析,具体从计算公式的角度出发,整体分析我省劳动力参与率变动情况,另一方面,通过对我省第六次人口普查数据进行系统地分析,考察我省劳动力参与率在不同性别、年龄、城乡、受教育程度组别间的差异。第四部分是建立劳动力参与率与经济增长的VAR模型,在此基础上运用脉冲响应函数来分析二者作为一个系统,对系统内部的标准差新息扰动的响应以此来探究我省劳动力参与率与经济增长的关系。第五部分通过对我省各市州的面板数据建立回归模型,得到影响我省劳动力参与率的主要因素。第六部分是本文的总结、启示与展望。本文采用两个计量经济模型,分别从时间序列数据和面板数据两个角度来分析我省劳动力参与率与经济增长的关系。第一个模型采用1995-2010年四川省劳动力参与率及经济增长率的数据序列建立VAR(1)模型,并在此基础上进行脉冲响应分析。结果表明目前我省劳动力参与率与经济增长率存在着格兰杰因果关系,二者有正相关关系,脉冲响应结果表示我省经济增长率对劳动力参与率的一个标准差扰动的响应存在着一定的滞后期,即当期的劳动力参与率变动不会马上影响经济增长率的改变。第二个模型采用2005-2010年四川省各市(州)劳动力参与率面板数据,利用个体固定效应模型进行建模,通过逐个剔除不显著变量的方法,最后得出我省劳动力参与率与地区生产总值存在着倒U型曲线的关系,当期阶段正处于正向关系；失业率、城镇化率、职工享受福利程度、受教育程度均对我省的劳动力参与率存在着显著影响；性别比、固定资产投资总额、平均货币工资水平对我省劳动力参与率影响不显著,此外基于各市(州)面板数据建立的个体固定效应模型中各个城市的截距项存在着一定的空间聚集效应,表明我省劳动力参与率水平的大小与各市(州)的地理位置也存在着一定的相关性。最后本文通过上述分析和总结提出了关于我省发展经济,提高劳动力参与率的有关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the participation rate of the labor force has become a problem for scholars to study, whether from the employment situation or the period of the people's bonus machine, the labor force participation rate is the index that has to be mentioned. (b) The increase in the number of employed persons will directly increase the labour force participation rate, while the increase in the labour force participation rate will, to a certain extent, reflect the good employment situation; in addition, only when the labour force participation rate remains at a higher level, while the unemployment rate is maintained at a lower level, In order to fully play the advantage of the age structure of the population, it is shown that the contribution of the population bonus to the growth of the economy can accelerate the growth of the Chinese economy. Based on the economic development of Sichuan Province, this paper starts with the participation rate of the labor force, and takes into account the relation between the labor force participation rate and the economic growth of our province, and then the analysis and research of the labor force participation rate as the starting point to promote the rapid and stable development of our economy. Based on the above thought, the article will be divided into six parts. The first part is the introduction, mainly introduces the purpose, meaning and technical means of this paper, and possible Innovation point. The second part is the text The third part is to make a descriptive statistical analysis of the labor force participation rate of our province, and from the angle of the calculation formula, analyze the change of the labor force participation rate of our province. On the other hand, through the system of the sixth census data of our province The analysis of the labor force participation rate of our province in different sex, age, urban and rural areas and the degree of education The fourth part is to establish the VAR model of the labor force participation rate and the economic growth. On this basis, the impulse response function is used to analyze the two as a system, and the response of the standard deviation and the new interest disturbance inside the system is used to explore the labor force participation rate and the economic growth of our province. The fifth part is to set up a regression model for the panel data of each city state in our province to get the main influence on the labor force participation rate of our province The sixth part is the summary and inspiration of this paper. In this paper, two econometric models are used to analyze the labor force participation rate and economy of our province from two angles of time series data and panel data, respectively. The first model uses the data series of the labor force participation rate and the economic growth rate of Sichuan Province in 1995-2010 to establish the VAR (1) model, and on this basis, it takes the vein. The results show that there is a Granger causality between the labor force participation rate and the economic growth rate in our province, and there is a positive correlation between them. The result of the impulse response indicates that the response of the economic growth rate of our province to one standard deviation of the labor force participation rate is one. A fixed lag period, that is, the change of the labor force participation rate in the current period, will not immediately affect the economic increase The second model adopts the data of the labor force participation rate of the labor force of various cities in Sichuan Province from 2005 to 2010, and uses the model of individual fixed effect to model, and finally, it is concluded that the labor force participation rate of our province and the gross domestic product have the inverted U-shape. The relationship between the curve and the current period is in the positive relation; the unemployment rate, the urbanization rate, the employee's welfare and the degree of education have a significant impact on the labor force participation rate of our province; the sex ratio, the total investment of the fixed assets, the average monetary wage, and the labor force participation rate of our province There is a certain spatial aggregation effect in the intercept term of each city in the individual fixed effect model based on the data of each city (state), indicating that the level of the labor force participation rate in our province and the geographical location of each city (state) also exist. Finally, through the above analysis and summary, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the development economy of our province and the increase of the participation rate of the labor force.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F249.27;F224

【参考文献】