中国城镇的家庭以外食物费用的决定因素

发布时间：2019-06-11 22:47

【摘要】：本文旨在分析中国城镇居民的家庭以外食物费用的决定因素,特别关注社会保险制度改革对该市场的影响。这领域现有的文献主要集中在收入与家庭结构对家庭以外食物费用的影响。但是,根本上从来没人估计过社会保险制度改革,其目的为促进中国国内消费,是否对家庭以外食物费用会有任何影响。此种分析让我们揭示金融风险的来源,例如突然发生的高医疗支出与养老金保险缺乏,对家庭以外食物费用会有何种反射。同时,此种分析提供了一些重要见解,关于社会保险制度进步对该市场的未来可以带来什么好处。本文采用的是2002年的数据集,该数据集来源于一项名为Chinese Households Income Project (CHIP)的系列调查。选择该数据集的优点是,它包含每个家庭参与社会保险体制的详细信息,并且,它适合开展全面实证分析。研究结果表明,在不久的将来,中国家庭以外食物市场的增长幅度高于整体经济的增幅,与这一领域最新文献的研究成果相吻合。具体来说,研究计算证实,对于百分之七十八的样本观察值,家庭以外食物是奢侈品,而对于百分之九十九的样本观察值,家庭以外食物是正常商品。此外,收入弹性表明较低收入居民的增长趋势,最高峰据估计是靠近中间样本的,并且,它也表明了高收入家庭居民的下降趋势。实证分析也揭示兴趣年龄和学生对家庭以外食物费用的影响。与以前的研究相一致,年轻家庭据估计在家庭以外食物的花费比其他居民多。更有意思的是,实证分析表明,学生占据很大一部分的影响。这个结果对了解确认中国家庭以外市场消费者具有重要意思,显然地,之前的研究忽略了这一重要细节。学生之所以会很大程度上影响居民家庭以外食物支出的原因在于,学生经常住在校园里,经常在学校食堂吃饭。然而,最重要结论是与中国政府未来几年内的社会保险政策对家庭以外食物开支的影响有关的。第一,家庭每年存到个人退休金账户的存款金额有利于家庭以外食物消费的增长。尽管城市的二元变数很多,这个结果对于城市的控制是强有力的。这可能是因为,买年存到个人退休金账户的金额更高的那些家庭,比较不用担心未来的收入问题,因此会在家庭以外的食物上花费更多。相对性地,如果中国政府能实现政府目标,大大提高城镇养老体制的覆盖率,中国的家庭以外食物市场将增长起来。第二,有一定证据表明,住房公积金余额对家庭以外食物消费有积极的作用。参与住房公积金的居民现在只需要储蓄少量的钱用做将来买房,这样可以增加当前的家庭以外食物的花费。尽管这个结果对于城市的控制不是强有力的,但是当居民的每年住房公积金存款金额,而不是住房公积金余额,被当作控制力时,效果又是正面的。结论是中国政府的经济适用房的持续增加能增加中国家庭以外食物的消费。最后,私人医疗开支收入比率的增加导致家庭以外食物消费大大的减少,尤其是对贫困家庭。可能的原因是,医疗费用的支出时间具有不确定性,医疗费用也不能进行摊销,这使得健康状况较差的家庭需要保持很高水平的储蓄并且较少消费。多数研究已经记录了医疗支出对储蓄水平的影响。和退休金的影响一样,这个结果对于城市的控制是强有力的,此外,控制不享有医疗保险体制的户主的二元变数,也会产生同样的结论。如果中国政府通过医疗保险体系,成功地扩大国家支付的医疗费,从而降低居民医疗费用负担,家庭以外食物市场将增长起来。家庭里的流动人口对家庭以外食物花费量有负面影响,这个事实确认社会保险体制的参与和政府补贴的对家庭以外食物的正面影响。原因是,流动人口大多大部分不享有保险计划,并且当他们享有保险计划时,他们总是面临繁琐的条件。如果中国流动人口的保险服务得到改善,中国家庭以外食物的支出将大大提高。没有实际证据确认教育支出对居民的家庭以外食物支出消费有消极作用的理论,也没有任何调查结果支持在具体的房子价值以下中国家庭会限制消费水平的理论。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determinants of food costs other than the family of Chinese urban residents, and pay particular attention to the impact of the reform of the social insurance system on the market. The existing literature in this area focuses primarily on the impact of income and family structure on food costs other than the family. However, there has never been an estimate of that reform of the social security system at all, with the aim of promoting domestic consumption in China and for any effect on the cost of food other than the family. This analysis allows us to reveal the source of financial risk, such as the sudden high medical expenditure and the lack of pension insurance, and what kind of reflection would be to the cost of food other than the family. At the same time, such an analysis provides a number of important insights regarding the benefits of the advancement of the social security system to the future of the market. The data set in 2002 is used in this article, which comes from a series of surveys called Chinese Hoseshlods Incoe Project (CHIP). The advantage of the selection of the data set is that it contains detailed information on the participation of each family in the social security system and is appropriate for conducting a comprehensive and empirical analysis. The results show that, in the near future, the growth rate of the food market outside the Chinese family is higher than that of the whole economy. In particular, the study confirmed that for seventy-eight per cent of the sample observations, food other than the family was a luxury, and for ninety-nine per cent of the sample observations, the food outside the family was a normal business. In addition, income elasticity indicates a trend in the growth of lower-income residents, which is estimated to be close to the middle sample, and it also shows the decline in high-income households Potential. The empirical analysis also reveals the age of interest and the student's fee for food other than the family In line with previous studies, young families are estimated to spend more on food than others More interesting, the positive analysis shows that students take a large part The result is of great significance to the understanding of consumers outside China's home, apparently, the previous study ignored the weight in detail, that reason why the student will largely influence food outside of the family is that the student often live in the campus, often at school However, the most important conclusion is that the Chinese government's social insurance policy over the next few years is related to food expenses other than the family The effect is related. First, the deposit amount of the family to the individual pension account each year is in favor of the food other than the family The growth of consumption. Although the city's binary variable is a lot, the result is the control of the city It's strong. This may be because, for those families with higher amounts of personal pension accounts for years, they don't have to worry about future income problems, so it's going to be outside the family. More and more. Relativity, if the Chinese government can achieve the goal of the government, greatly improve the coverage of the urban pension system, the food market outside China It will grow. Second, there is some evidence that the balance of housing provident fund has no effect on the food other than the family There is a positive effect. The residents who are involved in the housing provident fund now need only a small amount of money to be used as a future home, so that the current family can be increased In addition to the cost of food, although the result is not strong for the city's control, when the resident's annual housing accumulation fund deposit amount, rather than the housing accumulation fund balance, is treated as a control force, The effect is positive. The conclusion is that the continuous increase in the Chinese government's affordable housing will increase the Chinese family In the end, the increase in the income ratio of private medical expenses has led to a significant reduction in the consumption of food other than the family In particular for poor families, it is possible that the time of expenditure for medical expenses is uncertain and that the cost of medical treatment cannot be amortized, which makes it necessary for families with poor health to maintain a high level of health Savings and less consumption. Most studies have recorded medical support As with the effect of the level of savings, as with the effect of the pension, the result is strong for the control of the city and, in addition, controls the binary variable of the head of the household that does not enjoy the health insurance system, The same conclusion could also be produced. If the Chinese government has successfully expanded the state-paid medical expenses through the health insurance system, it can reduce the burden on the medical expenses of the residents and the family The food market will grow. The floating population in the family has a negative impact on the amount of food other than the family, which confirms the participation of the social insurance system and government subsidies. The positive effect of food outside the family is due to the fact that most of the floating population does not enjoy the insurance scheme, and when they enjoy the insurance plan, They are always faced with complex conditions. If China's floating population's insurance service is improved, Chinese families The expenditure on external food will be greatly improved. There is no real evidence that education spending has a negative effect on the consumption of food spending other than the family's family, nor has any findings supported in the specific house value
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1

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