基于几何过程的退化可修系统维修策略研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 11:48

本文选题：更新过程　切入点：几何过程　出处：《燕山大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：在系统维修问题的研究中,几何过程退化可修系统是非常重要和常见的一类系统。几何过程退化可修系统的特点是每次故障后的维修时间逐渐增加,每次故障维修后的寿命逐渐减少。在实际生产中,几何过程退化可修系统在很多领域具有广泛的应用,比如计算机网络系统、电力系统、航空航天设备、核电站、大型武器装备、工厂中的生产线系统等。这些系统在使用过程中一旦发生故障就会造成巨大的损失,所以对于退化可修系统的维修策略进行研究具有重要的理论和实际意义。近年来,对于几何过程退化可修系统维修策略的研究已经取得了一定的进展,但是由于很多系统是比较复杂的,对其进行建模和分析都比较困难,还有一些需要解决的问题。本文针对实际生产中存在的一些复杂系统,建立工作和修理时间服从几何过程的退化可修系统模型并进行最优维修策略研究。首先,研究了在短期时间内运行且需要进行不定期检测的退化可修系统的检测和更换策略。建立了三个模型:没有更换的单部件模型、有更换的单部件模型、有更换且有备份的单部件模型。在每个模型中提出不同的检测策略,对于每种策略应用概率分析方法和几何过程的性质等,求出系统首次故障前期望费用的表达式,并通过数值算例对每种策略进行比较分析,找出最适合该系统的检测策略。其次,在有冷贮备的?-冲击模型中考虑了系统自身的寿命,对其最优维修策略进行研究。系统的故障可能由两种原因造成,一种是由于系统的自然寿命,另一种是冲击造成的。利用更新过程和几何过程理论,求出了系统在长期运行条件下单位时间内期望效益的表达式。最后,对于具体分布函数寻找使期望效益达到最高的维修策略,并对重要参数做了敏感度分析,揭示这些参数对最优策略和期望效益的影响。然后,在由两部件串联组成的系统中增加了检测和预防维修,研究了最优维修策略。通过概率分析方法找出系统的平均工作时间和故障修理时间,利用更新过程和几何过程理论,求出了系统在长期运行条件下单位时间内期望效益和平均停机时间的表达式。最后,寻找使期望效益最高和平均停机时间最短的维修策略,并与没有检测或预防维修的情况比较,强调了预防维修和检测对于提高系统可靠性的重要性。再次,将有订购提前期的几何过程退化可修系统维修策略的研究推广到多部件系统和多故障状态系统。系统中每个需要更换的部件都要提前订购,因此会产生存储和停工的费用。对这两个系统分别求出在长期运行条件下单位时间内期望效益的表达式,并给出了最优策略的存在性和寻找最优策略的方法。最后,对于具体数值寻找最优策略使期望效益达到最低。最后,以易拉罐生产线为例,研究了自动化生产线的预防维修和订购策略。找出了使自动化生产线平均停机时间最短或期望效益最高的预防维修和订购时间。证明了这些定量分析结果对于增加设备的可靠性和提高系统的生产率具有实际应用价值。
[Abstract]:In the study of system maintenance problems in geometric process degenerative repairable system is a very important system and common geometric process. Degradation of the repairable system is gradually increased each time after the failure of the repair time, every time after the maintenance of life gradually reduced. In actual production, the geometric degradation process of repairable system with wide in many fields, such as computer network systems, power systems, aerospace equipment, nuclear power plants, large weapons and equipment, factory production line system. These systems are in the process of using once malfunction will cause a huge loss, so for the degradation of the repairable system maintenance strategy research has the important theory and the practical significance. In recent years, the research on the geometric process repairable deteriorating system maintenance strategy has made some progress, but because the system is more complex than many, Modeling and analysis of its are more difficult, there are still some problems to solve. In view of some complex systems exist in the practical production, repairable system model and optimal maintenance strategy for building work and degradation repair time obeys geometric process. Firstly, research the detection of degenerative repairable system in a short period of time running and in need of any periodic inspection and replacement strategy. Set up three models: no single component model to replace the single component model, replacing the single component model are replaced and backup. The different detection strategies in each model, the probability of each strategy analysis method and geometric process the nature of the system were obtained for the first time at the expense of the early expression of fault cases, and comparative analysis of each strategy by numerical simulation, find out the most suitable detection strategy of the system. Second, in Have a cold standby? - shock model into its life senior high school entrance examination system, to study the optimal maintenance strategy. System failure may be caused by two reasons, one is because of the natural life of the system, the other is caused by the impact. The renewal process and geometric process theory, the system of expectations benefit expression in unit time long-term operating conditions. Finally, the distribution function is looking to make the highest expected benefit to the maintenance strategy, and the important parameters of the sensitivity analysis, reveal the effect of these parameters on the optimal strategy and expected benefits. Then, in two part series by the increase of detection and preventive maintenance the composition of the system, we study the optimal maintenance strategy. To find out the system through the probability analysis method of the average working time and the repair time, the renewal process and geometric process theory, the system in the The long-running unit time under the condition of the expected benefits and average downtime expression. Finally, to make the maintenance strategy of the expected benefit maximum and average minimum downtime, and compared with no detection or preventive maintenance, preventive maintenance and inspection stressed the importance to improve the reliability of the system. Once again, there will be order geometry the process of the early period of degradation of repairable system maintenance strategy to multi components system and multi fault state of the system. Each replacement of components in the system are to be ordered in advance, and therefore will have a cost of storage and shutdown. On the two systems separately to calculate the expected benefit expression in unit time under the conditions in the long run and, given the existence of the optimal strategy and method to find optimal strategies. Finally, the specific values to find the optimal strategy makes the expected benefit to reach the minimum. Finally, easy to Pull tank production line as an example, preventive maintenance and ordering strategy of automatic production line is found. Make automatic production line downtime of the shortest average or the highest expected benefit of preventive maintenance and order time. These proved the results of quantitative analysis for practical application to increase equipment reliability and improve the productivity of the systems.

【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TH17

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