基于贝叶斯分类的煤矿系统安全动态定量评价

发布时间：2018-04-12 22:14

本文选题：煤矿 + 系统安全　；参考：《西安科技大学学报》2015年03期

【摘要】：为及时、合理评价煤矿生产系统安全状况,促进现场隐患闭环管理,将源于现场日常隐患排查得到的隐患信息,从不同角度提取系统安全属性作为评价指标,形成一个表达系统安全状态的逻辑结构,通过建立安全隐患风险等级与系统安全评价标准之间的映射关系对系统安全属性量化,用以定量表示系统安全逻辑结构中指标层的安全状态。运用贝叶斯分类法分析历史评价样本及指标量化数据,用最大后验概率表达评价样本对于评价等级的隶属关系来得出评价结果,实现了煤矿生产现场系统安全动态、定量评价,通过实例分析表明了该方法适用于现场短周期的系统安全动态评价。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the safety status of coal mine production system in a timely and reasonable manner, and to promote the closed-loop management of hidden dangers in the field, the hidden danger information derived from the daily hidden trouble investigation on the spot is taken as the evaluation index, and the system safety attribute is extracted from different angles.It forms a logical structure to express the security state of the system, and quantifies the security attributes of the system by establishing the mapping relationship between the risk level of the security hidden danger and the system security evaluation standard.It is used to quantitatively represent the security state of the index layer in the security logic structure of the system.The Bayesian classification method is used to analyze the historical evaluation samples and the quantitative data of the indexes, and the maximum posterior probability is used to express the subordinate relation of the evaluation samples to the evaluation level to obtain the evaluation results. The safety dynamic and quantitative evaluation of the coal mine production field system is realized.An example shows that this method is suitable for system safety dynamic evaluation of short period.
【作者单位】：西安科技大学能源学院;陕西汇森煤业开发有限责任公司;
【基金】：西安科技大学博士启动基金资助(2012QDJ30)
【分类号】：TD77

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