基于元胞自动机的区域灾害后果演化模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 12:41

本文选题：灾害后果 + 承灾体　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来发生的各类突发事件,导致了大量的人员伤亡和财产损失,对经济发展和社会稳定造成了严重威胁。突发事件灾害后果的严重程度由致灾因子强度、承灾体脆弱性、以及区域应急能力决定,由承灾体受到的影响和破坏表现。即使是同一类型的突发事件,发生在不同区域,其灾害后果也不尽相同。研究区域灾害后果演化模型,了解灾害后果随时间发展变化的趋势,可以为区域的防灾减灾规划提供参考,具有重要意义。本文首先对灾害后果演化模型进行了理论研究：收集各类突发事件灾害损失评估的相关研究和资料,提取典型突发事件的主要承灾体,以及事件中承灾体的不同状态。在此基础上,分析不同事件的灾害过程和影响因素,并定义本研究中灾害后果和灾害后果的演化。介绍元胞自动机模型的基本原理,分析元胞自动机模型的要素和灾害后果演化过程的相似性。基于对灾害后果演化的分析,通过土地利用这一媒介,建立起区域中土地利用类型和承灾体分布的联系。介绍了当前土地利用分类的两种国家标准,分析这两种标准的差异,以及对于不同类别的承灾体,应当选择何种土地利用分类标准。并基于这两种标准的统计调查数据,对省级、七大地理区级粒度上不同行政区土地利用结构的差异进行了统计分析。最后提出考虑土地利用类型的区域承灾体分布假设,分析了几类主要承灾体在区域土地利用类型上的分布。在以上研究的基础上,分别构建了基于元胞自动机的单一土地利用类型的演化模型和多土地利用类型的演化模型,针对具体的事件建立了模型的规则。为模拟承灾体在不同土地利用类型上不均匀分布的影响,扩展了标准元胞自动机模型中的邻居规则。通过设置不同的仿真情景,以及对仿真结果的分析,考察了脆弱性、空间分布等因素的影响,这些因素使得不同区域在同样的致灾因子强度下表现出不同的灾害后果。最后将模型拓展应用于建筑物震害的推演,推演结果说明通过合理构建规则,模型也可以应用到更多事件中。
[Abstract]:In recent years, all kinds of unexpected events have resulted in a large number of casualties and property losses, and have posed a serious threat to economic development and social stability. The severity of emergency disaster consequences is determined by the intensity of disaster factors, the vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, and the ability of regional emergency response, and by the impact and damage performance of disaster bearing bodies. Even if the same type of emergency occurs in different regions, its disaster consequences are not the same. It is of great significance to study the evolution model of regional disaster consequences and to understand the trend of the development of disaster consequences with time, which can provide a reference for regional disaster prevention and mitigation planning. In this paper, the evolution model of disaster consequence is studied in theory: collecting the relevant research and data of disaster loss assessment of all kinds of unexpected events, extracting the main disaster bearing bodies of typical emergencies, and the different states of disaster bearing bodies in the event. On this basis, the disaster process and influencing factors of different events are analyzed, and the disaster consequences and the evolution of disaster consequences in this study are defined. This paper introduces the basic principle of cellular automata model, analyzes the elements of cellular automata model and the similarity of disaster consequence evolution process. Based on the analysis of the evolution of disaster consequences, the relationship between the distribution of land use types and disaster bearing bodies in the region is established by means of the medium of land use. This paper introduces two kinds of national standards of land use classification at present, analyzes the differences between these two standards, and what kind of land use classification criteria should be selected for different types of disaster bearing bodies. Based on the statistical survey data of these two standards, the differences of land use structure in different administrative regions at provincial level and seven geographical districts were analyzed statistically. Finally, the assumption of regional disaster bearing body distribution considering land use type is put forward, and the distribution of several main disaster bearing bodies in regional land use type is analyzed. On the basis of the above studies, the evolution model of single land use type based on cellular automata and the evolution model of multiple land use types are constructed, and the rules of the model are established for specific events. In order to simulate the effect of uneven distribution of disaster-bearing bodies on different land use types, the neighbor rules in the standard cellular automata model are extended. By setting different simulation scenarios and analyzing the simulation results, the effects of vulnerability, spatial distribution and other factors are investigated. These factors make different regions show different disaster consequences under the same intensity of disaster factors. Finally, the model is extended to predict the earthquake damage of buildings. The results show that the model can also be applied to more events through reasonable construction rules.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X4

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