北极西北航道潜在经济影响及中国对策——基于全球多区域可计算一般均衡

发布时间：2018-01-12 10:26

本文关键词：北极西北航道潜在经济影响及中国对策——基于全球多区域可计算一般均衡　出处：《世界经济与政治》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：北极海冰消融使西北航道具备较大发展空间,其大规模使用将对中国和全球经济产生重要影响,各经济体受益程度构成了其应对战略的经济基础。针对当前西北航道经济影响评估研究偏重技术经济分析而弱于宏观经济分析的现状,作者在改进GTAP模型基础上开发了全球多区域可计算一般均衡模拟系统,对西北航道的潜在经济影响开展了模拟分析。模拟结果显示,西北航道的使用有利于全球经济增长,但不同国家或地区受益程度出现分异,包括中国在内的东亚地区、北美、欧盟等成为较大受益方,尤其是东亚国家受益最为明显。从较长时期来看,西北航道的价值在于对各经济体的连通而非对"北极市场"的连通。对此,中国需要在气候变化大背景下、从战略高度重新认识西北航道的价值,加强与东亚、欧盟等国家或地区的合作,推进西北航道的和平、可持续利用。
[Abstract]:The melting of Arctic sea ice gives the Northwest Passage a great space for development, and its large-scale use will have an important impact on China and the global economy. The degree of benefit of each economy constitutes the economic base of its coping strategy. In view of the current situation of economic impact assessment of northwest waterway, emphasis is placed on techno-economic analysis rather than macroeconomic analysis. Based on the improved GTAP model, a global multi-region computable general equilibrium simulation system is developed, and the potential economic impact of the Northwest Passage is simulated and analyzed. The use of the Northwest Passage is conducive to global economic growth, but different countries or regions have different benefits, including China in East Asia, North America, the European Union and other major beneficiaries. East Asian countries, in particular, have benefited most. In the longer term, the value of the Northwest Passage lies in connectivity to economies rather than to "Arctic markets." for this, China needs to be in the context of climate change. From a strategic perspective, we should re-understand the value of the Northwest Passage, strengthen cooperation with countries or regions such as East Asia and the European Union, and promote peace and sustainable use of the Northwest Passage.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“北极航道的发展前景、经济影响与中国的参与机制研究”(批准号:15CGJ024)研究成果
【分类号】：F551
【正文快照】： 02-0106-24一北极航道的“再发现”全球气候变暖引发的北极海冰消融是北极航道“再发现”的直接原因。研究表明,北极地区的变暖速度是世界其他地区的两倍。(1)2016年10月,北极海冰的日平均范围为640万平方公里,是有卫星观测记录以来的10月份最小海冰面积。(2)北极冰融将使低海

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