船舶航道航行安全综合评价的研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 13:41

本文关键词：船舶航道航行安全综合评价的研究　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着沿海地区经济持续稳定的发展,其所属水域的安全性也受到了前所未有的重视。港口航道是海上交通系统的子系统,其隐含的危险性、可能造成的损失以及所能接受的风险值,均依赖于安全评价。随着航运形势及操船环境的变化,使得仅仅依靠操船者个人的努力,已经难以确保航行安全,这就要求操船者不仅从驾驶台去观察和考虑问题,更需要从广阔的空间去观察作为操船者本身、船舶和围绕其周围的整体环境。本文由海上交通系统工程的“船～环境”关系的评价研究出发,力图对当前研究所涉及的相关理论做出总结,并尝试将船舶航道航行安全评价区分为静态和动态两种评价方式,同时利用两者优缺互补进行加法合成实现综合评价。其中,静态评价对应于隐患指标,仅考虑构成系统的诸因素以及因素间的关系是否满足安全要求,并据此作为衡量系统安全状况的依据；动态评价对应于风险指标,以事故后果及后果发生的概率作为计算风险的依据,评价过程仅考虑船舶航行过程中因操纵而确实存在的危险程度。针对指标评价值的计算,本文引入DHGF四元分析法结合专家问卷调查完成隐患指标评价值的计算,风险指标评价值的计算则基于受控系统及船舶操纵模拟实验并辅以MATLAB拟合,最终通过对隐患指标及风险指标权重进行赋值完成综合评价指标值的计算。通过实例验证说明,本文采用综合评价的方法一定程度上克服了静态评价与动态评价两者本身的局限性,同时也表明该方法用于评价现有的及改善后的操船环境对船舶航行安全的影响是可行的。
[Abstract]:With the continuous and stable economic development of coastal areas, the safety of its waters has received unprecedented attention. Port channel is the subsystem of maritime traffic system, and its hidden danger. The possible loss and the acceptable risk value all depend on the safety evaluation. With the change of shipping situation and ship operating environment, it is difficult to ensure the safety of navigation only relying on the personal efforts of the operator. This requires the operator not only from the bridge to observe and consider the problem, but also from the vast space to observe as the boat operator itself. Based on the evaluation of the relationship between ship and environment of marine traffic system engineering, this paper tries to summarize the relevant theories involved in the current research. It also tries to divide the evaluation of ship navigation safety into static and dynamic evaluation methods, at the same time, it makes use of the advantages and disadvantages of the two complementary additive synthesis to achieve the comprehensive evaluation. Among them, the static evaluation corresponds to the hidden danger index. Only considering the factors that constitute the system and whether the relationship between the factors can meet the security requirements, and based on this as the basis for measuring the security situation of the system; The dynamic evaluation corresponds to the risk index and takes the accident consequence and the probability of the consequence as the basis to calculate the risk. The evaluation process only takes into account the degree of danger due to manoeuvring in the course of the ship's navigation, and the calculation of the evaluation value of the index. This paper introduces DHGF quaternion analysis method combined with expert questionnaire to complete the evaluation of hidden danger index value calculation. The calculation of the evaluation value of the risk index is based on the simulation experiment of the controlled system and the ship maneuvering, supplemented by MATLAB fitting. Finally, by assigning the hidden danger index and the risk index weight to complete the calculation of the comprehensive evaluation index value. In this paper, the method of comprehensive evaluation has overcome the limitations of static evaluation and dynamic evaluation to some extent. It is also shown that this method is feasible to evaluate the influence of the existing and improved ship operating environment on ship navigation safety.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U698

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