基于DSGE的城市交通碳排放驱动机制及测算模型

发布时间：2018-01-12 22:07

本文关键词：基于DSGE的城市交通碳排放驱动机制及测算模型　出处：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球变暖加剧、环境恶化显著,已经引起世界各国的高度重视。二氧化碳作为最为重要的温室气体也是节能减排的重点对象。在所有行业的二氧化碳排放中,交通行业是增速最快的,占全球温室气体排放的22%到24%,预计到2030年运输相关的二氧化碳排放量将增长57%,远远超过全球其他行业。为寻求更合理的低碳交通实现路径,实现城市的可持续发展,世界各国城市纷纷构建低碳交通体系并将其作为重点发展战略举措。但城市交通碳排放问题一直没有得到很好解决。目前的研究主要是通过一些指标来对交通碳排放的部分相关因素进行分析,没有对交通碳排放的内在驱动机制进行详细而深入的探讨,很难把握复杂多变的实际交通碳排放问题。深入细致地分析各碳排放因素之间的内在驱动机制,从中找到更加有效的碳排放治理路径,制定合理的碳排放政策,是当前交通领域内研究不可忽视的一点。同时,在低碳交通政策方面,应用DSGE模型作为城市交通碳排放政策制定工具的研究仍较为缺乏。鉴于此,本文基于一般均衡理论,参考真实经济周期(RBC)理论,同时考虑交通运输产品的特性,引入运输企业的生产函数和交通运输消费者特有的效用函数,同时引入中国碳减排环境政策,构建DSGE模型来系统地解析交通运输领域碳排放的内在驱动机制,及政府相关的低碳经济政策效用,在此基础上探寻交通运输领域有定量依据的合理碳排放治理路径,使其同时满足消费者效用最大化和企业利润最大化,为政府制定低碳交通发展政策提供参考。本文以2012年西安市交通统计数据为基础年,构建了基准情景、征收碳减排成本情景、机动车限购情景、组合政策情景,通过MATLAB软件进行DSGE模型的编程模拟和计算,对四种情景下的交通碳排放趋势进行了详细的对比分析,最终得出同时控制私家车交通碳排放和公共交通碳排放的组合政策治理效果最为显著的结论,为政府交通碳排放治理路径选择提供了量化的理论依据。
[Abstract]:Global warming, environmental degradation significantly, has attracted great attention in the world. The focus of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas is an important energy saving and emission reduction. The carbon dioxide emissions in all industries, the transportation industry is the fastest growing, the total global greenhouse gas emissions by 22% to 24%, is expected to 2030 carbon dioxide emissions transportation will grow 57%, far more than other industries around the world. For low carbon transportation more reasonable path, realize the sustainable development of the city, the city of all countries in the world have set up low-carbon transport system and its development as the focus of strategic initiatives. But the problem of city traffic carbon emissions have not been solved. The present study is the main part of related factors on the traffic carbon emissions by some indexes to analysis, not on intrinsic driving mechanism of traffic carbon emissions in detail. The thorough discussion, it is difficult to grasp the actual traffic carbon emissions. The complex analysis of the intrinsic driving mechanism between the carbon emission factors deeply, find more effective governance path of carbon emissions in formulating rational carbon emissions policy, is a current research in the field of traffic can not be ignored. At the same time. In the low carbon transport policy, research and application of the DSGE model as the city traffic carbon emissions policy tools are lacked. In view of this, this paper based on the general equilibrium theory, with reference to the real business cycle (RBC) theory, considering the characteristics of transportation products, the utility function of transport enterprises into specific production function and the transportation of consumers at the same time, the introduction of China carbon emission reduction environmental policy, to construct systematically analytical field transport carbon emissions driving mechanism of DSGE model, and government related low carbon economy policy effect On the basis of this, to find a reasonable carbon transportation is the quantitative basis of the emission control path, to meet the consumer utility maximization and profit maximization, to provide the reference for the government to formulate the policy of the transportation development of low carbon. In 2012 the Xi'an municipal traffic statistics based, constructs the baseline scenario, carbon the cost of emission reduction scenarios, the purchase of motor vehicles, the combination policy scenario, simulation and calculation of DSGE model by MATLAB software, the traffic trend of carbon emissions in four scenarios of a detailed comparative analysis, finally draws the conclusion for the most significant effect while controlling for private cars and public transport carbon emissions carbon emissions combined the policy of governance, provides a theoretical basis for the selection of quantitative government transport carbon emissions governance path.

【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U12;X322

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