基于前景理论的出行者出行方式选择模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 03:27

本文关键词：基于前景理论的出行者出行方式选择模型研究　出处：《南京财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：出行选择决策问题是城市公共交通研究领域的重要内容之一,出行方式选择问题则是出其中的一个重要的研究对象。目前,国内外在研究这一问题的主要理论是期望效用理论,该理论将出行者假设成“完全理性人”,但在实际情境下,出行者受到来自自身的如经济收入、出行目的等主观因素以及来自外界的如复杂的路网状况等客观因素的影响,往往表现出非理性的出行选择行为,这与期望效用理论所假定的“完全理性人”以及“追求效用最大化”相违背,而前景理论就比较贴合实际的描述了实际环境下出行者的出行心理和行为选择的变化过程。因此,本文在前景理论的框架背景下构建了出行者出行方式选择模型,以更加贴近实际的反映出行者的出行选择行为。本文首先对出行方式行为进行了概述,在此基础上对出行方式进行了分类并总结了各自的特点,并从宏观和微观的层面分别分析了出行者出行方式选择影响因素。通过对前景理论应用于出行方式选择的适用性的论证,形成了基于前景理论构建模型的框架。在模型构建过程中,将出行时间费用和货币费用综合为主观感知费用,并引入了出行者特性心理成本的概念。在设置参照点时考虑到了参照点的异质性以及参照点与出行者风险偏好之间的关系,根据不同类型的出行者设置不同的参照点以及相应的风险偏好系数。根据前景理论的相关原理,依次确定模型的价值函数、决策权重函数,最终构建了出行方式选择模型。本文最后对一实际网络进行实际调查,分别应用期望效用理论和前景理论构建的模型对调查所得的数据进行计算,并将最终的计算结果与实际调查的结果作对比分析,结果得出基于前景理论构建的模型的计算结果比基于期望效用理论的计算结果更加贴近实际,这也验证了前景理论应用于出行方式选择的适用性和实用性。
[Abstract]:Travel choice decision problem is one of the most important contents in the field of urban public transportation, and the choice of trip mode is one of the most important research objects. The main theory to study this problem at home and abroad is the theory of expected utility, which assumes the traveler as "completely rational person", but in the actual situation, the traveler receives his own economic income. Subjective factors such as travel purpose and external factors such as complex road network conditions often show irrational travel choice behavior. This is contrary to the assumption of "fully rational person" and "pursuing the maximization of utility" in the theory of expected utility. The foreground theory describes the changing process of travelers' travel psychology and behavior choice in the actual environment. In this paper, under the background of foreground theory, a travel mode selection model is constructed to reflect the travel choice behavior of travelers more closely to the reality. Firstly, this paper summarizes the travel mode behavior. On this basis, the travel mode is classified and their characteristics are summarized. And from the macro and micro levels, respectively analyze the factors affecting the choice of travel mode, through the perspective of the application of travel mode selection of the applicability of the argument. In the process of constructing the model, the travel time cost and currency cost are combined into subjective perceived cost. The concept of psychological cost of traveller's characteristic is introduced. The heterogeneity of reference point and the relationship between reference point and traveler's risk preference are taken into account when setting reference point. According to the different types of travelers set different reference points and the corresponding risk preference coefficient. According to the related principles of foreground theory the value function of the model and the decision weight function are determined in turn. Finally, the travel mode selection model is constructed. Finally, a practical survey of a real network is carried out, and the expected utility theory and the prospect theory are used to calculate the data obtained from the survey. The final results are compared with the results of the actual investigation. The results show that the results of the model based on the prospect theory are closer to the reality than the results based on the expected utility theory. It also verifies the applicability and practicability of foreground theory applied to travel mode selection.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.12

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