基于径向基神经网络的特长公路隧道施工安全风险评估系统研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 22:38

本文关键词： 特长公路隧道施工风险径向基神经网络风险评估评估软件　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国己将公路建设列为国民经济发展的重点战略之一。特长公路隧道的建设往往会带来显著的经济与社会效益,且具有一定的战略意义。随着我国隧道施工技术的不断发展,特长公路隧道大量涌现。特长隧道意味着更加复杂的地质条件与结构受力状态,包含更多的风险因素,且施工难度大、建设过程风险高,施工风险问题日益突出。因此,开展特长公路隧道施工安全风险评估研究工作具有重要的现实意义。目前在隧道施工安全风险评估中常用的评估方法如:灰色理论、模糊数学、层次分析法等。这些传统评估方法虽然发展已经较为成熟,但评估结果有一定的主观性与局限性。在计算机技术高速发展的今天,新的隧道风险评估方法的提出势在必行,为解决隧道施工安全问题提供了新的途径。本文综合运用文献研究、现场调研、专家调查、统计分析、和神经网络方法针对特长公路隧道施工安全风险评估开展了相关工作。并以云南某特长公路隧道为依托,进行特长公路隧道施工安全风险评估应用,论文主要工作及成果如下:(1)通过对12种定性或定量的风险评估方法进行对比分析,选择出了性能优越、评估结果客观且适用于特长公路隧道施工风险评估的径向基神经网络评估方法。并基于径向基神经网络方法提出了特长公路隧道施工的风险评估流程。(2)统计分析了 142起隧道施工典型事故,详细分析了导致事故发生的影响因素,并以此建立了特长公路隧道施工安全总体风险指标体系和典型施工事故安全风险评估指标体系。(3)结合相关的隧道风险评估与管理规范指南,给出了特长公路隧道施工安全风险等级的分级标准;根据规范及文献研究,初步划分了特长公路隧道施工安全风险指标的评判标准。(4)建立了基于径向基神经网络的特长公路隧道施工安全风险概率评估模型及特长公路隧道施工安全风险损失模型,并以此为基础开发了隧道施工安全风险评估软件。(5)应用本文开发的隧道施工安全风险评估软件对云南省某特长公路隧道进行施工安全风险评估,得到该隧道的施工安全风险等级为高级,该评估结果与隧道实际施工情况相符,并针对该隧道采取了风险控制措施,降低风险。
[Abstract]:In recent years, highway construction has been listed as one of the key strategies of national economic development. The construction of super-long highway tunnel will often bring significant economic and social benefits. With the continuous development of tunnel construction technology in China, a large number of extra-long highway tunnels emerge. The extra-long tunnel means more complex geological conditions and structural stress state. Contain more risk factors, and the construction is difficult, the construction process risk is high, the construction risk problem is increasingly prominent. It is of great practical significance to study the safety risk assessment of super-long highway tunnel construction. At present, the commonly used assessment methods in tunnel construction safety risk assessment are: grey theory, fuzzy mathematics. Although these traditional evaluation methods have been more mature, but the evaluation results have some subjectivity and limitations. In the rapid development of computer technology today. It is imperative to put forward a new method of tunnel risk assessment, which provides a new way to solve the tunnel construction safety problems. This paper makes comprehensive use of literature research, field investigation, expert investigation and statistical analysis. And neural network method for the safety risk assessment of ultra-long highway tunnel construction carried out related work. Based on a special long highway tunnel in Yunnan Province, the application of safety risk assessment in the construction of super-long highway tunnel is carried out. The main work and results are as follows: 1) by comparing and analyzing 12 qualitative or quantitative risk assessment methods, we select the superior performance. The evaluation results are objective and suitable for the risk assessment of ultra-long highway tunnel construction. Based on the radial basis function neural network method, the risk assessment process of ultra-long highway tunnel construction is proposed. 142 typical accidents in tunnel construction are analyzed statistically. The influencing factors of the accident are analyzed in detail. Based on this, the paper establishes the general risk index system of construction safety of super-long highway tunnel and the risk assessment index system of typical construction accidents. It combines the relevant guidelines of tunnel risk assessment and management norms. The classification standard of safety risk grade in the construction of super-long highway tunnel is given. According to the norms and literature research. The evaluation standard of safety risk index of super long highway tunnel construction is preliminarily divided. The safety risk probability evaluation model and the safety risk loss model of ultra-long highway tunnel construction are established based on radial basis function neural network. Based on this, the tunnel construction safety risk assessment software .Y5 is developed. The tunnel construction safety risk assessment software developed in this paper is used to evaluate the construction safety risk of a special long highway tunnel in Yunnan Province. It is obtained that the construction safety risk grade of the tunnel is advanced, and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual construction situation of the tunnel, and the risk control measures are taken to reduce the risk.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U455.1

【参考文献】