基于我国城市特征的BRT适应性研究与规划设计

发布时间：2018-01-22 08:10

本文关键词： BRT与有轨电车类比 BRT适应性分析客流需求预测 BRT走廊选址 BRT效率分析　出处：《东南大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市公共交通系统已经被证实为解决城市交通拥堵的重要策略,而作为大中型运量的快速公交系统和有轨电车系统作为其重要的实现形式,已经在世界各大中型城市得到广泛应用。随着我国城市交通出行人口需求与日俱增,在道路资源和交通供给能力紧张的情况下,发展小汽车的交通模式无法应对如此庞大的交通负荷,因此公交和小汽车对道路资源展开了激烈博弈。尤其近年来,我国大部分城市被交通拥堵、交通事故、雾霾空气污染等城市问题困扰,绿色可持续的公共交通系统被提升到城市发展的基本策略,各城市正在大规模开展BRT系统的规划和建设。结合当前BRT系统发展需求,该论文重点研究基于我国城市特征的BRT系统适应性分析,并建立BRT系统规划、选址和评估方法。主要是通过查阅国内外大量相关文献和研究成果,总结现有理论与方法的空白点和薄弱点,综合利用交通规划、信息论、系统工程及交通仿真等技术对BRT的适应性展开系统研究,类比BRT与同级别的有轨电车,以推动和完善BRT系统规划与选址、客流需求预测、系统效益预评估和后评估理论的完善发展。首先,从我国大部分城市的BRT和有轨电车系统特点出发,分析了城市和城市发展特征,从技术功能、投资造价、能耗与环保、适应性和运营管理等方面,以实际系统为基础类比研究了BRT与有轨电车两类中运量公交系统在政治、经济、交通需求、道路资源利用等方面的优缺点,同时剖析了BRT与有轨电车在我国发展中存在的问题。然后,从城市建设BRT系统的内在需求因素和外部供给因素出发,着重研究了城市发展水平与经济规模、走廊客流量及出行特征、道路交通条件和城市形象等影响城市和交通走廊的因素。基于上述指标,利用层次分析法建立了多目标决策模型,构建了中运量快速公交比选方法,形成了BRT系统的适应性分析模型。与现有方法相比,本研究基于我国大部分城市和城市交通特点,先类比分析了BRT和有轨电车的优缺点,然后深入研究了BRT系统适应性分析方法,综合了城市发展水平与经济规模、走廊客流量及出行特征、道路交通条件和城市形象等内在需求因素,以及运营效率、投资造价、功能技术等外部供给因素,提出了基于采用层次加性加权法建立适应性评估模型。再次,从BRT走廊选址的基本前提条件客流需求预测出发,建立了基于信息熵理论的土地结构熵客流预测模型。在客流预测的基础上,建立了BRT走廊选址策略,涵盖了城市空间因素、城市土地利用、公交客流需求、道路空间结构、路网运行效率和其他方面。提出了将功能定位与走廊选址相结合的规划方法确定候选走廊,然后根据提出的选择模型进行筛选。针对最重要的筛选指标客流量,提出了引入土地结构熵参数的客流需求预测广义重力模型。与传统重力模型相比,该方法借助信息熵理论,建立了土地结构熵模型和引入熵参数的广义重力模型,该模型将城市用地规划的构成要素直接引入到交通规划中,提出了广义重力客流出行分布预测模型,以获得区内出行和区间出行一致的理论算法,改变传统重力模型对小区内的出行量预测精度偏低的问题,提高了交通规划的科学性和合理性。提高了区内出行可靠性。能够为城市用地结构控制和交通需求管理提供决策支持。最后,结合我国城市和城市交通特征,提出了我国BRT系统综合效益评估体系。一方面,基于微观交通仿真技术建立了BRT系统预评估指标,为决策者和规划者在建设BRT时提供理论依据和决策支持。另一方面,基于已建的交通检测系统,提出了BRT系统后评估指标,用于辅助评估和优化BRT线网和运营管理等。在预评估阶段,建立了基于微观仿真的系统预评估策略,主要从运送能力和运营效率两个层面出发,提出可量化的评估指标；而在后评估阶段,更加注重运量、土地利用价值提升、运行效率改善、经济和环境效益改善。尤其是在指标计算方面,摒弃了传统以交通调查为主的评价方法,提出了利用车载GPS定位、运营调度、自动售票、非现场执法和信号控制等系统获取的交通数据作为指标计算的主要依据,提升了评估的科学性、准确性、可行性。最后,以广州市为例,结合城市特征,利用建立的评价模型评估了中山大道一段BRT系统的效益,针对发现的问题提出了解决方法。综上所述,该论文从城市和城市交通特征出发,以实例类比剖析了BRT和有轨电车的特性,创新性的研究了BRT在我国城市发展中的适应性,提出了客流出行需求预测模型和BRT走廊选址策略,建立了BRT系统效益分析预评估和后评价体系,构筑了整套较为完整的BRT系统规划、设计、走廊选址和效益分析等理论,能够为城市公交决策者和运营者提供理论和方法支撑。
[Abstract]:City public transport system has been identified as an important strategy to solve the city traffic congestion, and as the rapid transit system of large and medium volume and tram system as an important realization form, has been widely used in the world of the large and medium-sized city. Along with our country city travel needs of the population in the road traffic and grow with each passing day, resource supply the ability of tense situation, the development of car traffic patterns are unable to cope with the traffic load so huge, so public transport and car on the road resources in a fierce game. Especially in recent years, most of our city is traffic congestion, traffic accidents, air pollution and other problems plagued the city haze, green and sustainable public transport system is to enhance the basic the strategy of city development, the city is a large-scale planning and construction of the BRT system. According to the requirements of the current development of the BRT system. This paper focuses on the analysis of adaptive BRT system based on the characteristics of the city in our country, and the establishment of BRT system planning, site selection and evaluation methods. Mainly by consulting a large number of domestic and foreign literature and research achievements, summarizes the existing theories and methods of blank points and weak points, the comprehensive utilization of traffic planning, information theory, a systematic study of the adaptability of system engineering and the traffic simulation technology of BRT BRT, the analogy with the same level of tram, in order to promote and improve the BRT system planning and site selection, passenger demand forecasting, evaluation theory and evaluation system of pre and post development benefits. First of all, most of the city of BRT in our country and has the characteristics of tram system of analysis characteristics of the development of city and city, from the technical function, investment cost, energy consumption and environmental adaptability, and operation management, according to the actual system based on BRT and two analog class trams Mass transit system in the political, economic, traffic demand, road resources utilization of advantages and disadvantages, and analyzes the BRT and exist in the development of our trolley problem. Then, starting from the inner demand factors of city BRT system construction and the supply of external factors, focusing on the scale of city development level and the economy. Corridor traffic and travel characteristics, traffic conditions and other factors of city image and city traffic corridor. Based on the above indicators, using AHP method to establish the multi-objective decision model, establishes the method of mass rapid public cross ratio analysis of BRT formation, the adaptability of the system model. Compared with the existing methods, this research is based on the most of our city features and city traffic, the first analogy analysis of BRT and the advantages and disadvantages of the trolley, and in-depth study of the BRT system suitability analysis method, comprehensive development of the city With the level of economic scale, corridor traffic and travel characteristics, road traffic conditions and the city's image and internal demand factors, and the operation efficiency, investment cost, function technology and external supply factors, proposed the establishment of adaptive evaluation model using hierarchical weighted method based on the basic premise. Again, the location from the BRT corridor passenger demand forecasting starting to establish a prediction model of land structure entropy flow based on information entropy theory. Based on the forecast of passenger flow, established the BRT corridor location strategy, covering the city spatial factors, city land use, transit demand, road space structure, road network efficiency and other aspects. Put forward the function orientation and corridor planning method the location to determine the combination of candidate corridor, and then screened. According to the selection model proposed for screening index of passenger flow is the most important, the introduction of the land The generalized gravity model to predict the passenger demand structure entropy parameters. Compared with the traditional gravity model, the method based on the information entropy theory, the generalized gravity model established land structure entropy model and entropy parameters, the model elements of city land use planning directly into traffic planning, puts forward the generalized gravity of trip distribution in order to obtain the prediction model of area travel and travel theory consistent interval algorithm, change the traditional gravity model to travel to the area of the problem of low accuracy of prediction, and improve the transportation planning of science and rationality. Increase in the area of travel to reliability. The structure of land use control and traffic demand management to provide decision support for the city. Finally, combined with the characteristics of traffic of our country city and city, comprehensive benefits system in China BRT system assessment is put forward. On the one hand, the microscopic traffic simulation technology to establish a system based on BRT Evaluation index system, to provide a theoretical basis and decision support for decision makers and planners in the construction of BRT. On the other hand, the traffic detection system has been built based on the evaluation index of BRT system is put forward, for auxiliary assessment and optimization of BRT network and operation management. The evaluation stage in the pre established evaluation system pre based on microscopic simulation, mainly from the carrying capacity and operational efficiency of the two aspects, put forward the evaluation of quantitative indicators; and the assessment phase, pay more attention to traffic, enhance the value of land use, improve the operation efficiency, improve economic and environmental benefits. Especially in the calculation of the index, to abandon the traditional evaluation method in traffic the main investigation, proposed the use of vehicle GPS positioning, operation scheduling, automatic ticketing, traffic data acquisition and signal control of non site enforcement system as the main index calculated according to the evaluation, promotion The science, accuracy and feasibility. Finally, taking Guangzhou city as an example, combined with the characteristics of a city, making use of the established evaluation model to evaluate the BRT system of Zhongshan avenue a benefit, aimed at the problem of discovery methods are put forward. In summary, the paper from the city and city traffic characteristics of case analysis and analogy BRT have the characteristics of tram, innovative research of the BRT in the development of our city adaptability, proposed passenger travel demand forecasting model and BRT corridor location strategy, established the BRT system benefit analysis and evaluation system of pre evaluation and post, to build a complete set of BRT system planning, design, site selection and benefit analysis of the corridor the theory can provide theoretical and methodological support for decision makers and operators of city bus.

【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

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