多模式发展的港口生态承载力演变

发布时间：2018-01-22 13:11

本文关键词： 环境学港口生态承载力系统动力学供需平衡发展模式　出处：《安全与环境学报》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：生态承载力是区域可持续发展的重要衡量标准,研究港口生态承载力状况并预测其演变趋势有利于港口生态可持续发展。针对现有港口生态承载力研究中生态过程机制、时间动态性考虑不足等问题,引入系统动力学理论,结合港口生态系统的特点,从社会经济、资源、环境3个方面进行因果反馈分析,在此基础上构建港口生态承载力的系统动力学模型。从港口生态供需关系的角度出发,引入生态承载力供需平衡指数,对港口生态承载力状况进行评价。以大连某港区为例,以GDP增长率、环保投资比重、单位吞吐量综合能耗、单位吞吐量水资源消耗量、单位吞吐量COD产生量、单位吞吐量SO_2产生量、单位吞吐量固废产生量作为调控变量,动态仿真自然发展模式、经济快速增长模式、协调发展模式和资源环境保护模式4种港口发展模式下2015—2030年港口生态承载力演变趋势。结果表明:能源消耗是制约该港区生态承载力改善的重要瓶颈,优化港口用能结构、加强港口能源管理有助于改善港口生态承载力;经济资源环境协调发展模式是实现港口生态系统可持续发展的最优模式。
[Abstract]:Ecological carrying capacity is an important measure of regional sustainable development. It is beneficial to the sustainable development of port ecology to study the status of port ecological carrying capacity and forecast its evolvement trend. In view of the ecological process mechanism of the existing port ecological carrying capacity research, the time dynamics is not considered enough and so on. By introducing the theory of system dynamics and combining the characteristics of port ecosystem, the causal feedback analysis is carried out from three aspects: social economy, resources and environment. On this basis, the system dynamics model of port ecological carrying capacity is constructed. From the point of view of the relationship between port ecological supply and demand, the balance index of ecological carrying capacity supply and demand is introduced. Taking a port area in Dalian as an example, taking the growth rate of GDP, the proportion of environmental protection investment, the comprehensive energy consumption per unit throughput and the consumption of water resources per throughput as an example. Unit throughput of COD, unit throughput of SO_2, unit throughput of solid waste production as control variables, dynamic simulation of natural development model, rapid economic growth model. The evolution trend of the ecological carrying capacity of the port during 2015-2030 under the coordinated development model and the resource and environment protection mode is shown. Energy consumption is an important bottleneck restricting the improvement of ecological carrying capacity of the port area. Optimizing the structure of port energy use and strengthening port energy management are helpful to improve the ecological carrying capacity of port. The coordinated development model of economic resources and environment is the best mode to realize the sustainable development of port ecosystem.
【作者单位】：大连理工大学建设工程学部;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51279026)
【分类号】：F552.7;X736.1
【正文快照】： 05P. 社会-经济-自然复合生态系统是一个复杂的巨系统,其生态承载力水平能够反映人类社会经济系统与资源环境支持系统的可持续发展能力。1986年,Holling[1]最先将“Ecological Resilience”的概念引人生态学研究中,提出生态承载力要考虑生态系统所能提供的所有生态功能。此

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