绵西高速公路BOT建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 21:33

本文关键词： 高速公路 BOT模式风险识别风险评估风险规避　出处：《西南交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：基于BOT模式的高速公路工程项目近年来在我国逐渐增多,但对于此类项目投资风险的分析技术和方法却仍不成熟,这给投资此类项目的投资者带来了一些麻烦和困惑。如何能够准确地识别风险,科学地评估风险,有效地规避风险,以便给投资决策者提供决策依据已是一个亟待解决的问题。本文分析了高速公路BOT建设项目风险基本理论,从流程与程序、利益相关方等方面论述了BOT模式的概念与特点,从高速公路BOT项目风险的识别阶段、评价阶段、应对阶段论述了BOT风险管理的基本理论,站在与政府签订项目实施协议的投资方的角度,对绵西高速公路BOT项目风险识别进行了阐述,分七个方面对发生几率较大的风险进行深入的分析,包括市场环境风险的识别、项目生产风险的识别、管理经营风险的识别、项目完工风险的识别、项目不可抗力风险的识别,为下文的项目评价打下良好的基础。结合定性与定量两个方式进行风险的综合评价,阐述了基于层次分析法的风险因素及层次,确定了高速公路BOT风险因素集,确定了风险因素权重集,通过AHP方法建立了评价指标权重集,并对其进行了修正,阐述了具体评价过程的实施。对高速公路BOT工程项目风险模糊综合评价进行了实证分析,对高速公路工程项目风险因素集进行确定,确定高速公路工程项目风险权重集,在此基础上确定了高速公路项目风险评价集,构建了项目风险模糊评价矩阵,从而对项目风险进行模糊评价,并得出了最终的风险评价结果。结合高速公路工程项目的主要风险,详细阐述了风险的防范与应对。阐述了环境风险,金融环境风险,市场环境风险,生产运营境风险,管理经营风险,项目不可抗力风险的规避策略。
[Abstract]:Expressway engineering projects based on BOT mode have been increasing gradually in China in recent years, but the investment risk analysis techniques and methods for such projects are still immature. This brings some troubles and puzzles to investors who invest in such projects. How to identify risks scientifically and effectively avoid them. In order to provide investment decision makers with the basis of decision-making has been an urgent problem. This paper analyzes the basic theory of highway BOT construction project risk from the process and procedures. Stakeholders discussed the concept and characteristics of the BOT model, and discussed the basic theory of BOT risk management from the identification stage, evaluation stage and response stage of the expressway BOT project risk. From the point of view of the investors who signed the project implementation agreement with the government, the paper expounds the risk identification of the BOT project of the Mianxi Expressway, and analyzes the risk with the greater probability in seven aspects. Including the identification of market environment risk, project production risk identification, management risk identification, project completion risk identification, project force majeure risk identification. For the following project evaluation lay a good foundation. Combined with qualitative and quantitative two ways of risk comprehensive evaluation, elaborated based on AHP risk factors and levels. The risk factor set of expressway BOT is determined and the weight set of risk factor is determined. The evaluation index weight set is established by AHP method and modified. The implementation of concrete evaluation process is expounded. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of expressway BOT project risk is empirically analyzed, and the risk factor set of expressway project project is determined. On the basis of determining the risk weight set of expressway project, the risk evaluation set of expressway project is determined, and the fuzzy evaluation matrix of project risk is constructed, so that the fuzzy evaluation of project risk is carried out. Finally, the risk evaluation results are obtained. Combined with the main risks of highway project, the prevention and response of risk are elaborated in detail. The environmental risk, financial environmental risk and market environmental risk are expounded. Production environment risk, management risk, project force majeure risk avoidance strategy.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U415.1

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