船载危险品集装箱风险评价

发布时间：2018-01-24 02:46

本文关键词： 危险品 D-S理论风险评价集装箱船　出处：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着化工产品在各种行业中的广泛应用以及化工产业的快速发展,使得危险货物的海运量增加很快。随之集装箱装载危险品船舶也不断发展壮大。由于危险品具有特殊的理化性质,在装箱、装船、积载与隔离、海上运输中都有较高的要求。每一次事故的发生都会造成严重的损失,因此,船载危险品集装箱的风险控制研究已成为一个热点。海上船舶运输的安全问题一直是业界关注的重点,由于事故产生的巨大代价,使各国政府和学者逐渐意识到通过科学管理是预防海上事故发生最有效的方法。船载危险品集装箱风险评价是一个复杂的,涉及多环节、多部门的系统,其中所包括的大量未知信息,对整体的系统风险评价造成了很大的难度。运输流程中的每一个环节都有可能会对安全产生风险,包括危险品的包装、绑扎、隔离、集装箱积载隔离不当以及堆场、海事机关和船方的监管不到位等是影响安全运输的一个重要风险因子。由于证据理论是一种处理不确定性信息较好的推理方法,不仅在预测领域、人工智能和专家系统、信息融合领域中广泛应用,而且在风险评价领域也成为了一种重要的评价方法。本文结合D-S理论研究了危险品集装箱海上运输,首先对于危险品的性质及船载危险品集装箱的运输流程做了整体概括,接着建立评价指标体系以及指标量化方法。最后构建风险评价模型,并进行实例计算,并根据实际案例提出整体的安全措施以降低风险。为危险品集装箱船的安全运输提供了一个评价方法,以便危险品集装箱船舶的决策者做出合理决策提供参考建议。
[Abstract]:With the wide application of chemical products in various industries and the rapid development of chemical industry. The dangerous goods in the sea increased rapidly. With the container loading of dangerous goods ships also continued to grow. Because of the special physical and chemical properties of dangerous goods, loading, loading, stowage and isolation. There are higher requirements in maritime transport. Each accident will cause serious losses, therefore. The research on the risk control of dangerous goods containers has become a hot spot. The safety of marine shipping has always been the focus of attention of the industry, due to the huge cost of accidents. The governments and scholars of various countries gradually realize that scientific management is the most effective method to prevent marine accidents. The risk assessment of ship dangerous goods container is a complex, multi-link, multi-sector system. The large amount of unknown information which includes, has caused great difficulty to the whole system risk evaluation. Every link in the transportation process may have the risk to the safety, including the dangerous goods packing, the binding. Isolation, improper container stowage isolation and yard. The inadequate supervision of maritime authorities and ships is an important risk factor affecting the safety of transportation. Because the evidence theory is a good reasoning method to deal with uncertain information, it is not only in the field of prediction. Artificial intelligence and expert system are widely used in the field of information fusion and have become an important evaluation method in the field of risk assessment. First of all, the nature of dangerous goods and the shipping process of the container of dangerous goods are summarized as a whole, then the evaluation index system and the method of index quantification are established. Finally, the risk assessment model is constructed, and an example is calculated. According to the actual cases, the overall safety measures are put forward to reduce the risk, which provides an evaluation method for the safe transportation of dangerous goods container ships. So that the decision makers of dangerous goods container ships to make reasonable decisions to provide reference advice.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698.3;U695.22

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