京港澳高速驻马店至信阳段改扩建工程影响区交通增长预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 22:02

本文关键词： 交通量预测四阶段法 OD调查交通量分布　出处：《湖北工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中部地区崛起、西部大开发等一系列宏观发展战略的不断深入推进,外向型经济内涵的将进一步扩大,省际沟通逐步活跃,中长距离的区域物资交流和商务往来将会更加频繁。京港澳高速作为南北交通主动脉和国道主干线,面临着巨大的交通需求,加快实施项目改扩建工程,提高中原腹地通行能力已成为区域路网发展的迫切之需。项目改扩建的实施将极大的提高通道服务水平,有利于吸引交通以充分发挥主干线、主通道、主骨架的功能与作用。所以,准确地交通量预测对于整个改扩建工程的决策和实施意义重大。本文首先通过对国内外交通量预测研究进行了综述,阐述交通量预测研究领域的发展过程和研究现状,列举出目前常用的交通量预测方法,分析各种方法的使用条件及其局限性。调查了项目实施前其影响区交通运输状况,论述了河南省包括铁路、公路、水运、民航、管道等运输形式所形成的综合运输体系现状,指出公路运输的地位和作用,介绍了驻马店市和信阳市的交通运输状况。通过对交通量预测方法的分析,确定本项目所采用的预测方法。对本项目的道路交通量作了调查,分析了道路流量增长趋势,并利用经济相关系数和弹性系数进行了相关性分析。进行了起讫点的专项调查,划分OD区并整理汇总OD数据,形成了基年的OD。通过对集中发生量、交通量分布、诱增交通量及转移交通量的预测,获得项目影响区域的交通量预测结果。
[Abstract]:With the rise of the central region, the development of the western region and a series of macro development strategies, the connotation of export-oriented economy will be further expanded, and inter-provincial communication will gradually become active. Long-distance regional material and business exchanges will be more frequent Beijing-Hong Kong and Macao Expressway as the north-south traffic aorta and national highway main line facing huge traffic demand to speed up the implementation of the project reconstruction and expansion project. Improving the capacity of the Central Plains hinterland has become an urgent need for the development of the regional road network. The implementation of the project reconstruction and extension will greatly improve the service level of the passageway and is conducive to attracting traffic in order to give full play to the main trunk line and main channel. The function and function of the main skeleton. Therefore, accurate traffic volume prediction is of great significance for the decision and implementation of the whole reconstruction and extension project. Firstly, this paper summarizes the research on traffic volume prediction at home and abroad. This paper expounds the development process and research status of traffic volume forecasting research field, and lists the commonly used traffic volume forecasting methods at present. This paper analyzes the use conditions and limitations of various methods, investigates the traffic and transportation situation of the affected areas before the implementation of the project, and discusses the railway, highway, waterway and civil aviation in Henan Province. This paper points out the status and function of highway transportation, introduces the traffic and transportation situation of Zhumadian city and Xinyang city, and analyzes the method of traffic volume prediction. The forecast method used in this project is determined. The road traffic volume of this project is investigated and the increasing trend of road flow is analyzed. Economic correlation coefficient and elasticity coefficient are used to analyze the correlation. The special investigation of starting point is carried out, OD area is divided and OD data is collected and the ODs of base year are formed. The traffic volume distribution, the induced traffic volume and the transfer traffic volume are predicted, and the traffic volume prediction results of the area affected by the project are obtained.
【学位授予单位】：湖北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491.14;U418.8

【参考文献】