基于信息熵的西部区域交通运输结构分析及其灰色预测

发布时间：2018-02-17 09:05

  本文关键词： 综合运输 交通运输结构 信息熵 灰色预测 马尔科夫模型　出处：《数学的实践与认识》2017年22期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着新型城镇化的建设,西部区域综合交通运输网络有了很大的改善,对其交通运输结构的发展程度进行研究已显得尤为重要.运用信息熵理论和灰色预测模型,对西部区域交通运输结构的演变趋势进行分析与预测,并以甘肃省为例进行实证分析.结果表明:由于近几年公路运输的快速发展,甘肃省运输结构的信息熵呈逐年下降趋势,各运输方式运量发展不均衡;对比GM(1,1)模型与灰色马尔科夫模型可得,后者更适用于西部区域交通运输结构的演变预测.研究结果可为西部区域交通运输结构的完善提供相应的参考.
[Abstract]:With the construction of new urbanization, the comprehensive transportation network in the western region has been greatly improved, so it is very important to study the development degree of its transportation structure. This paper analyzes and forecasts the evolution trend of transportation structure in the western region, and takes Gansu Province as an example. The results show that the information entropy of transportation structure in Gansu Province is decreasing year by year because of the rapid development of highway transportation in recent years. The development of various modes of transport is uneven; a comparison between the GM1 / 1) model and the grey Markov model can be obtained. The latter is more suitable for the prediction of the evolution of the transport structure in the western region, and the research results can provide a reference for the improvement of the transport structure in the western region.
【作者单位】： 兰州交通大学交通运输学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目(14CJY052);国家社科基金项目(15BJY037) 甘肃省自然科学基金项目(1606RJZA017,1508RJZA112)
【分类号】：N941.5;U111
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本文编号：1517710