中国交通事故死亡状况及酒驾处罚对交通事故死亡率的影响

发布时间：2018-02-28 16:23

本文关键词： 交通事故酒驾处罚中断时间序列分析　出处：《中国疾病预防控制中心》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：研究目的:了解中国目前交通事故死亡率现状以及评估中国酒驾处罚制定后的效果,本课题将分析中国人群交通事故死亡现状,评价2011年酒驾入刑加重处罚条列前后交通事故死亡率的差别,来间接评价酒驾处罚的执行效果,为进一步完善酒后驾驶相关法规提供依据。资料与方法:数据来源于中国疾病预防控制中心全国疾病监测系统,以及公安部全国道路交通事故监测信息系统。采用描述性分析方法,分析了 2015年中国人群交通事故死亡水平,以及2006至2015年交通事故死亡率的变化趋势。分析了 2006-2015年全国道路交通事故状况,包括万车死亡率,交通事故违法处置中酒驾所占比例等。同时,采用中断时间序列分析方法,评估了 2011年后酒驾处罚对交通事故死亡率的影响。数据资料整理采用Excel 2007,应用SAS9.4软件对资料进行统计分析,检验水准为0.05。结果:2015年中国总人群交通事故粗死亡率为16.46/10万,其中男性粗死亡率为24.38/10万、女性粗死亡率为8.40/10万;据此推算,每年因交通事故死亡约23万人,其中,男性约死亡17万人,女性约死亡6万人。除外0-14岁人群外,交通事故在不同性别人群、不同地区人群以及不同年龄组人群中都是伤害中的第一位死因。2006年至2015年中国人群交通事故标化死亡率呈现较为明显的下降,由21.32/10万下降到15.83/10万,下降幅度为25.75%;除外0-14岁人群,不同性别、不同地区以及不同年龄组人群,交通事故死亡率均呈现下降趋势。自2006-2015年来,中国涉及人员伤亡的道路交通事故起数、死亡人数、受伤人数持续下降,同时,万车死亡率也持续下降。全国处理的道路交通违法中,饮酒和醉酒的比例呈下降趋势。中断时间序列分析结果显示,总人群、男性、女性人群,以及东部、中部地区和35-69岁人群,干预前后交通事故死亡率均下降,且干预后死亡率下降幅度更为显著(P0.05),提示酒驾处罚加速了交通事故死亡率的下降,加重的酒驾处罚条例取得一定的效果。而在西部地区、以及0-14岁人群中,干预前后交通事故死亡率都无显著下降(P0.05),提示加重的酒驾处罚条例没有取得降低交通事故死亡率的效果。结论:2006-2015年中国人群交通事故标化死亡率总体呈下降趋势,万车死亡率也持续下降。全国处理的道路交通违法中,饮酒和醉酒的比例呈下降趋势。2011年实施的酒驾入刑的加重处罚条列,对总人群、男性、女性人群,以及东部地区、中部地区和35-69岁人群,2011年后交通事故死亡率下降幅度更为显著。提示酒驾处罚加速了交通事故死亡率的下降,可以说明2011年酒驾入刑的加重处罚条列,对促进交通事故死亡率下降的影响已呈现初步效果。
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the current situation of traffic accident mortality in China and to evaluate the effect of drinking driving penalty in China. In 2011, the difference of traffic accident mortality before and after the aggravated penalty of alcohol driving was evaluated to evaluate indirectly the effect of the enforcement of the penalty. To provide the basis for the further improvement of the relevant laws and regulations on drink driving. Materials and methods: the data are from the National Disease Surveillance system of the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. And the national road traffic accident monitoring information system of the Ministry of Public Security. Using the descriptive analysis method, this paper analyzes the death level of traffic accidents among Chinese people in 2015. And the changing trend of traffic accident mortality from 2006 to 2015. This paper analyzes the situation of road traffic accidents in China from 2006 to 2015, including the death rate of ten thousand vehicles, the proportion of alcohol driving in the illegal disposal of traffic accidents, etc. Meanwhile, the method of interrupting time series analysis is used. The effect of drunk driving punishment on traffic accident mortality after 2011 was evaluated. The data were collected by Excel 2007 and analyzed statistically by SAS9.4 software. The test level was 0.05. The results showed that the gross mortality rate of traffic accidents in China was 16.46% -100 000 in 2015. Among them, the crude mortality rate of males is 24.38 / 100, and the crude mortality rate of females is 8.40 / 100,000. Based on this, it is estimated that about 230,000 people die from traffic accidents every year, of which about 170,000 are males and 60,000 are females, except for those aged 0-14. Traffic accidents are the first cause of death among people of different genders, different regions and different age groups. From 2006 to 2015, the standardized mortality rate of traffic accidents among Chinese people showed a relatively significant decrease, from 21.32 to 100,000 to 15.83 to 100,000. Except for people aged 0-14, people of different sexes, different regions and different age groups, the mortality rate of traffic accidents has shown a downward trend. Since 2006-2015, the number of road traffic accidents involving casualties and the number of deaths in China have been on the decline. The number of injured people continued to decline, and the death rate of ten thousand vehicles also continued to drop. The proportion of alcohol and drunkenness in road traffic violations dealt with throughout the country showed a downward trend. Analysis of the interruption time series showed that the total population, men and women, In the eastern, central and 35-69 age groups, the mortality rate of traffic accidents decreased before and after the intervention, and the mortality rate decreased more significantly after the intervention, indicating that the penalty of drinking driving accelerated the decrease of the death rate of traffic accidents. But in the West, and in people aged 0-14, There was no significant decrease in traffic accident mortality before and after intervention, indicating that the increased drinking driving penalty regulations had no effect on reducing traffic accident mortality. Conclusion the standardized mortality rate of traffic accidents in China from 2006 to 2015 showed a downward trend. The death rate of ten thousand vehicles has also continued to decline. The proportion of alcohol and drunkenness in road traffic violations handled throughout the country is on a downward trend. In 2011, more severe penalties for alcohol driving were imposed on the general population, men, women, and the eastern region. In the central region and the population aged 35-69 years, the mortality rate of traffic accidents decreased more significantly after 2011. It is suggested that the penalty of drinking driving accelerates the decline of the death rate of traffic accidents, which can be explained by the aggravated punishment of alcohol driving in 2011. The effect on the decrease of traffic accident mortality has shown preliminary effect.
【学位授予单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：R195;U491.3

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