宁波海域船舶污染应急能力评价

发布时间：2018-03-02 07:16

本文关键词： 船舶污染应急能力评价指标体系层次分析法模糊综合评价　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：宁波凭借其优越的地理位置和自然条件,已成为我国重要的石油和危险化学品集散基地,石油和危险化学品吞吐量持续增长,船舶流量不断增加,船舶污染事故风险也随之增加。宁波海域拥有丰富的海洋渔业资源和滨海旅游资源,如果发生船舶污染事故,不能在第一时间控制事故灾情,将会给宁波海域海洋生态环境造成严重损害。因此,对宁波海域船舶污染应急能力进行评价研究,发现宁波海域应急管理存在的问题,对提高宁波海域船舶污染应急能力建设具有重要的现实意义。本文首先通过专家调查与文献阅读相结合的方法,对船舶污染应急能力的影响因素进行分析和归类,构建了船舶污染应急能力评价指标体系。确定了包括应急组织、应急储备、应急救援等5个一级评价指标；应急组织机构、应急培训演练、事故监测识别、灾情评估决策和卸载储运能力等19个二级评价指标。为了专家对19个二级指标隶属度进行打分时有统一的标准,对每个二级评价指标的评价标准进行了明确。基于宁波海域船舶污染应急管理现状,构建了模糊综合评价模型,对宁波船舶污染应急能力进行了综合评价。运用层次分析法确定各级评价指标的权重,并采用专家打分法确定各评价指标的隶属度。最后,利用加权平均法对评价结果进行反模糊化计算,得到最终评价结果。通过对宁波海域船舶污染应急能力的综合评价,发现应急预警能力和应急响应能力存在不足,分析了不足的原因,为提高宁波海域船舶污染应急能力建设提供了参考依据。
[Abstract]:With its superior geographical location and natural conditions, Ningbo has become an important oil and dangerous chemicals distribution base in China. The throughput of oil and dangerous chemicals continues to increase, and the volume of ships is increasing. The risk of ship pollution accidents also increases. Ningbo has abundant marine fishery resources and coastal tourism resources. If a ship pollution accident occurs, it is impossible to control the disaster situation in the first place. It will cause serious damage to the marine ecological environment in Ningbo Sea area. Therefore, the evaluation and study on the emergency response ability of ships in Ningbo Sea area, we find the problems existing in the emergency management of Ningbo Sea area. It is of great practical significance to improve the capacity of ship pollution emergency response in Ningbo. Firstly, through the method of combining expert investigation with literature reading, this paper analyzes and classifies the influencing factors of ship pollution emergency ability. The evaluation index system of ship pollution emergency response capability is constructed. Five primary evaluation indexes, including emergency organization, emergency reserve, emergency rescue, emergency organization, emergency training exercise, accident monitoring and identification, are determined. There are 19 secondary evaluation indexes such as disaster assessment decision and unloading storage and transportation capacity. In order for experts to grade the membership of 19 secondary indexes, there is a unified standard. Based on the present situation of ship pollution emergency management in Ningbo, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is constructed. The comprehensive evaluation of Ningbo ship pollution emergency response capacity is carried out. The weight of evaluation indexes at all levels is determined by AHP, and the membership degree of each evaluation index is determined by expert scoring method. Finally, By using weighted average method to calculate the evaluation results, the final evaluation results are obtained. Through the comprehensive evaluation of the ship pollution emergency capacity in Ningbo sea area, it is found that the ability of emergency warning and emergency response is insufficient. The reasons for the shortage are analyzed, which provides a reference for improving the emergency capacity of ship pollution in Ningbo sea area.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U698.7

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