地铁盾构法隧道工程安全风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 10:38

本文关键词： 地铁盾构隧道风险评估 WBS-RBS 模糊层次分析法风险矩阵　出处：《福建工程学院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国的地铁建设项目正处于数量的剧增和规模的扩大中,盾构技术也得到了迅猛发展。由于地铁盾构法隧道工程具有规模庞大、施工工序复杂、影响因素多、投资金额大、事故发生的后果严重且影响大的特点,所以在地铁盾构法隧道工程施工时对风险进行识别、估计和评价是很有必要的,为保证工程施工的顺利完成提供参考依据。本文对地铁盾构法隧道施工安全风险评估的各部分内容作了详细研究,主要包括以下几个方面:(1)根据所查阅的大量文献资料对地铁风险管理研究现状与进展进行综述,了解地铁盾构隧道风险管理的现状,发现目前的风险研究中存在的问题,然后提出本文的主要研究内容;(2)介绍风险管理相关的基本理论知识,依据风险管理的基本过程分别对风险机理、风险辨识、风险估计、风险评价和风险应对进行了研究;(3)根据地铁盾构法隧道工程施工的特点,运用工作分解结构法(WBS)对地铁盾构法隧道施工的工作井施工阶段、盾构始发前准备工作阶段、盾构始发阶段、盾构正常掘进阶段、联络通道施工阶段、盾构到达前准备工作阶段、盾构到达阶段、穿越特殊地段以及停机检修换刀阶段九个方面进行工作分解,以及运用风险分解结构法(RBS)从“4M1E”的角度实施风险分解,然后构建WBS-RBS矩阵展开风险辨识;(4)将模糊集理论与层次分析方法结合,从而建立了模糊层次风险分析模型,研究了基于三角、梯形模糊数运算的层次分析法。运用模糊集理论对由专家调查评估得到的风险因素发生概率和风险损失进行模糊运算,一定程度上实现了风险估计中的量化分析。应用改进的层次分析法求出各层级风险事件相对于上一层级风险的权重,从而得出各层级风险事件的风险发生概率和风险损失;(5)基于R=P×C的风险矩阵法,综合考虑风险事件的发生概率及风险损失对风险水平的影响,再通过与相应的风险指标进行比对,从而确定各风险事件的风险等级;(6)以福州地铁1号线2#竖井~福州火车站区间盾构法隧道工程实例为背景,运用本文的风险辨识结果和模糊层次风险分析模型进行了施工安全风险评估以验证该模型的可行性与实用性。
[Abstract]:China's subway construction project is in the rapid increase in the number and scale of the expansion, the shield technology has been developing rapidly. As the subway shield tunnel project with large scale, complicated construction process, many influencing factors, a large amount of investment, the accident of the serious consequence and influence of the characteristics, so the risk identification in the subway shield tunnel construction, estimation and evaluation is necessary, in order to provide reference for the construction of the successful completion of this paper. The risk assessment of construction safety of Metro Shield Tunnel of each part of the contents have been studied in detail, mainly including the following aspects: (1) according to the review of the research status and progress the risk management of a large number of literature review, the status quo of metro shield tunnel risk management, found risk research in the current problem, then puts forward the The main research contents; (2) introduces the basic theoretical knowledge of risk management, according to the basic process of risk management of risk mechanism, risk identification, risk estimation, risk assessment and risk response were studied; (3) according to the characteristics of the subway shield tunnel construction, the work breakdown structure (WBS) work well construction of metro shield tunnel construction, shield launching preparation stage, starting stage, shield tunneling contact normal stage, construction stage channel, shield before the arrival of the preparation stage, shield arrival stage, through special sections and downtime tool change stage nine aspects work breakdown, and the use of risk decomposition structure method (RBS) from the "4M1E" point of implementation of risk decomposition, and then construct the WBS-RBS matrix on risk identification; (4) the fuzzy set theory and hierarchical analysis methods, so as to build Fuzzy AHP model of risk made, based on triangular, trapezoidal fuzzy number arithmetic AHP. Using fuzzy set theory to assess risk factors obtained by expert investigation and risk loss probability fuzzy operations, to a certain extent to achieve the quantitative analysis in risk estimation. The application of improved AHP method to calculate the level of risk events relative to a level of risk weights, so that all levels of risk event risk probability and risk loss; (5) the risk of R=P * C matrix method based on probability and risk loss considering risk events on the level of risk, and then through the corresponding risk indicators were compared in order to determine the risk level of each risk event; (6) on the Fuzhou subway line 1 ~ 2# shaft interval shield tunnel project of FuZhou Railway Station as an example, the use of risk identification The construction safety risk assessment is carried out by the knowledge result and the fuzzy level risk analysis model to verify the feasibility and practicability of the model.

【学位授予单位】：福建工程学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U455.43;U231.3

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