公路客运班线运营安全风险耦合分析及管理策略

发布时间：2018-03-04 20:44

本文选题：公路客运班线　切入点：风险管理　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年,我国社会经济的快速发展带动了公路、铁路、航空等运输方式的迅速发展,有效地缓解了客运供求紧张的局面。公路客运班线作为公路客运中不可或缺的一部分,使中、长途旅客运输供求紧张的情况得到了明显的改善。但由于公路客运班线运行里程较长、沿途道路环境复杂、安全监管不到位,且主要营运车辆为大、中型客车,因此,其事故率及伤亡率均较高。总结目前公路客运班线运营安全风险管理方法,其主要是通过分别对单一风险进行管理从而实现对整个公路客运班线运营系统的管理,但这种管理方法的效果并不理想。原因在于公路客运班线运营系统中不同类别的风险间存在着耦合作用,这种作用可将风险的危害程度大幅提高,而现有的风险管理办法无法有效地减轻耦合作用,所以,基于风险耦合理论开展公路客运班线运营安全风险管理研究,对于提升公路客运班线运营安全风险管理效果、降低公路客运班线事故的发生率和伤亡率具有十分重要的现实意义和理论价值。论文以公路客运班线为研究对象,运用系统工程学、风险管理、灰色关联分析法、事故致因理论等理论和方法,对公路客运班线运营安全风险的构成、评估、耦合机理、耦合度测度以及耦合风险的管理策略等展开研究。根据事故致因理论和公路客运班线运营系统的构成,将公路客运班线运营安全风险分为人为因素风险、车辆因素风险、道路因素风险和环境因素风险。由于耦合作用对非主要风险源危害程度的扩大效果并不足以使其发生质变或接近发生质变的突变点。因此,采用灰色关联分析法筛选出各类风险中的主要风险源,为后续研究公路客运班线运营安全风险耦合提供研究基础。在进行公路客运班线运营安全风险耦合研究方面,以风险耦合理论和轨迹交叉理论为基础,对公路客运班线运营安全风险耦合进行定义、分类及耦合机理分析。通过构建耦合测度模型和分层聚类分析法,实现基于耦合度的公路客运班线运营安全耦合风险评估。最后,基于解耦思想和评估结果,制定有针对性的公路客运班线运营安全风险管理策略。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of China's social economy has led to the rapid development of transport modes such as roads, railways and aviation, which has effectively alleviated the tense situation of passenger transport supply and demand. The tight supply and demand situation of long-distance passenger transportation has been obviously improved. However, due to the long mileage of road passenger lines, the complex road environment along the road, the lack of safety supervision, and the fact that the main operating vehicles are large and medium-sized passenger cars, so, The accident rate and casualty rate are both high. This paper summarizes the current safety risk management methods of highway passenger transport line, mainly through the management of a single risk, so as to realize the management of the whole highway passenger transport line operation system. However, the effect of this management method is not ideal. The reason is that there is a coupling effect between different types of risks in the highway passenger transport line operation system, which can greatly increase the harm degree of the risk. However, the existing risk management methods can not effectively reduce the coupling effect. Therefore, based on the risk coupling theory, the research on the safety risk management of highway passenger transport line operation risk management can improve the effect of road passenger transport line operation safety risk management. It is of great practical significance and theoretical value to reduce the accident rate and casualty rate of highway passenger train line. This paper takes the highway passenger train line as the research object, applies system engineering, risk management, grey relational analysis, etc. The theory and method of accident cause, the composition, evaluation and coupling mechanism of the safety risk of highway passenger transport line operation, According to the theory of accident cause and the constitution of highway passenger line operation system, the safety risk of highway passenger line operation is divided into human factor risk and vehicle factor risk. Road factor risk and environmental factor risk. Since coupling effects on the extent of damage to non-major sources of risk are not sufficient to cause qualitative change or approach the point of change. The main risk sources of all kinds of risks are screened by using grey relational analysis method, which provides the basis for further study on the safety coupling of highway passenger transport line operation safety. In the aspect of road passenger transport line operation safety risk coupling research, On the basis of risk coupling theory and trajectory crossing theory, the paper defines, classifies and analyzes the coupling mechanism of safety risk in highway passenger transport line operation. Finally, based on the decoupling idea and evaluation results, a targeted risk management strategy for highway passenger line operation safety is developed.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U492.8

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