基于AVL数据的公交运行可靠性评价及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-03-05 23:01

本文选题：公交运行可靠性　切入点：多元线性回归　出处：《计算机应用研究》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：结合成都市48路公交线路全天车辆自动定位(automatic vehicle location,AVL)数据,定量分析公交运行可靠性及其相关关系。对比证明区间运行时间均值与其标准差的对数呈现更为显著的线性关系后,量化指标区段长度、信号交叉口个数、公交专用道长度、站点个数、时间段,并细化指标沿线土地利用性质,建立多元线性回归模型以解释造成区间运行时间波动的原因。考虑到不可靠性会随着车辆的运行而逐步向后续区段传播的特性,提出了在因变量中加入前一区段运行波动性这一指标,以从时间和空间两个层面探究造成公交运行不可靠的原因,最终证明区段间公交运行可靠性存在较强的关联性。
[Abstract]:With the 48 Chengdu city bus lines all day long (automatic vehicle automatic vehicle location location, AVL) data, quantitative analysis of the reliability of the bus and the relationship between the running time interval. By comparing with the standard logarithmic mean difference is more significant linear relationship, quantitative indicators section length, the number of signal intersection, bus lane length the site, the number of time periods, and detailed index of land use along the nature, the reason for establishing multiple linear regression model to explain the cause of interval running time fluctuation. Taking into account the reliability with the operation of the vehicle and gradually spread to the subsequent section characteristics, proposed by adding this index in the previous section run volatility variables in order to explore, from two aspects of time and space caused by the bus operation is not reliable, finally prove the existence of strong correlation between the reliability of bus section .

【作者单位】：西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院;西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51308475) 四川省科技支撑计划资助项目(2011FZ0050)
【分类号】：U491.17

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