生鲜农产品运输方式决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 02:27

本文选题：生鲜农产品　切入点：运输　出处：《长安大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：与传统货物相比,生鲜农产品运输流程技术标准不一、批次多而数量少、成本变化较大,运输环节是连接供给方与需求方的重要纽带,是决定物流服务质量的关键环节,是提高物流生命力的先决条件。作为一种社会活动和经济活动,运输离不开人的行为决策,生鲜农产品运输方式决策的合理性关系到运输效果的优劣,究其原因:第一,自然环境、社会环境以及人的认知水平不同,将对运输方式决策产生不同程度影响,表现在运输方式决策形式因决策者的运输诉求、偏好不同而差异明显;第二,各种运输方式的技术特点和经济优势不同,同一运输诉求下的比较优势各有特点;第三,生鲜农产品运输方式决策的过程属于非理性选择过程,运输方式决策者对“不符合自身需求、不利于达到运输目的”的接受度不同,即对差异的偏好持不同敏感度,也影响着运输方式决策。本文旨在分析生鲜农产品运输方式决策行为的一般过程,探析其内在机理,通过验证主客观因素对决策的影响程度,抽取描述运输系统性能的可靠性属性,以此探讨系统性能约束下的决策优选,为作出合理决策给出理论参考依据。生鲜农产品物流的各个环节均存在运输活动,运输贯穿生鲜农产品的生产、加工、配送和消费过程,在这些物流节点之间,存在需求各异的运输承运方和托运方,伴有载运工具的转换衔接。以运输为依托的现代生鲜农产品物流体系将对运输效率、运输服务质量提出更高要求,物流对运输活动的影响过程也将不断扩展和加深。因此,探讨运输方式决策离不开物流系统这个决策大环境,梳理整个物流过程中运输的作用、机理,总结不同物流模式下的运输现状,分析其与运输需求满足之间的矛盾,有利于更好把握运输系统性能,对决策分析更具现实指导意义。时效性、便利性、经济性、安全性是描述运输系统性能的关键要素,为研究这些要素对不同运输方式下决策行为的影响程度,将抽象的要素具体化,体现为主、客观因素。通过筛选,将“成本、效率、安全”设为测量主观影响因素的潜变量,将“运输基础设施建设、物流配套体系、运输标准制定、低碳环保理念”设为测量客观制约因素的潜变量,建立结构方程模型。以此探讨对运输方式决策产生影响的客观制约条件和主观选择偏好,厘清决策过程中的相互制约关系,分析验证并得出不同运输方式下成本、时间、安全等因素对决策的影响及程度,为研究可靠性约束下的决策行为奠定基础。针对生鲜农产品运输品质要求高、方式间属性差异明显等特点,可靠性理论适用于度量不同属性的性能优劣,是诊断运输品质好坏、判断运输方式决策优劣的理论依据之一。生鲜农产品运输系统性能的优劣性,可从经济可靠性、时效可靠性、安全可靠性三个方面展开分析,梳理影响运输系统可靠性的因素,以及可靠性属性之间彼此影响的程度和范围,最终确定“以计算运输安全可靠性”为生鲜农产品运输系统可靠性的度量方式,并探讨其合理性。运用故障树法,将“风险性(或安全性、运输品质完好性)”确立为研究对象,设计指标体系,按照引起顶上事件发生的底事件和中间事件的层层逻辑连接,绘制风险体系结构图,并依据映射规则转化为相应的贝叶斯网络,以此计算运输风险顶上事件概率和整个系统可靠度,进而分析系统完全失效时,对运输系统可靠性施加作用的底事件的后验概率及其变化率。运输方式决策属于个人“非理性”活动,同时受各种条件制约,体现为客观条件制约下的主观选择差异,运输方式备选方案的差异主要体现在运输方式的属性差异,每一决策主体对运输方案属性差异的敏感度不同,分为看重差异、不太看重差异、不看重差异的三种不同态度下的运输方式决策。本文所研究生鲜农产品运输方式决策,最终运用多属性决策方法,将运输安全作为备选方案的重要属性,体现在每一方案的风险权重和其他因素的权重占比不同上,再依据不同运输方式间的属性差异,根据满足补偿机制可能性的高、中、低程度,作出相应决策。每一运输路段可能隐含潜在运输风险,突出方案的安全属性差异更能体现运输方式决策的科学性、实用性,更符合客观限制下的选择偏好规律,为解决现实中时效性和品质性不能兼顾的矛盾性问题提供思路。
[Abstract]:Compared with the traditional goods, fresh agricultural products transportation process technology standards, batch and quantity, cost changes greatly, transportation is the important link between the supply side and demand side, is the key of logistics service quality, is a prerequisite for improving the logistics vitality. As a kind of social and economic activities transport, cannot do without people's decision, the decision of fresh agricultural products transportation rationality related to transportation efficiency, the reason is: first, the natural environment, social environment and people's cognitive level, will be on the mode of transport decision-making have different effects, in the mode of transport due to the transport demand decision formal decision makers the preference varies obviously; second, technical characteristics and economic advantages of various modes of transport, the comparative advantage of the same transport demand under different characteristics; third, fresh agricultural products The process of transportation decision-making belongs to non rational selection process, decision makers of the mode of transport "does not meet their needs, is not conducive to transport to" acceptance of different preferences to different differences in sensitivity, but also affect the transportation decision-making. This paper aims to analyze the general process of fresh agricultural products transportation decision-making behavior and analysis of its internal mechanism, through the verification of subjective and objective factors of the decision, the reliability attribute extraction description transportation system performance, in order to explore the optimum decision system under performance constraints, to make reasonable decision provides the theory reference. All aspects of fresh agricultural products logistics are transport activities throughout the transportation of fresh agricultural products production, processing, distribution and consumption, between the logistics node, transport carrier and shipper has different needs, with carrying with transition The modern logistics system of fresh agricultural products. Based on the transport transport efficiency, transport service quality put forward higher requirements, process effect on logistics transportation activities will continue to expand and deepen. Therefore, to explore the decision-making mode of transport logistics system cannot do without the decision-making environment, transport sort out the whole process of logistics. The mechanism, summarize the transport situation of different logistics mode, and to analyze the contradiction between transportation demand, is conducive to better grasp the transportation system performance analysis is more realistic guiding significance for decision-making. The timeliness, convenience, economy, safety is the description of key elements of transportation system performance, to study the influence of these factors the behavior of different modes of transport, elements of the abstract concrete, reflecting mainly objective factors. Through screening, the cost, efficiency and safety "as the measurement of subjective factors influence The latent variables, the transportation infrastructure construction, logistics system, transportation standards, the concept of "low carbon environmental protection as the objective measurement factors of latent variable, structural equation model. In order to explore the mode of transportation decision objective condition influence and subjective preference, clarify the relationship in the decision making process the analysis and draw the different modes of transport cost and time, the influence on decision-making of safety factors and degree, lay the foundation for the research on the decision making behavior under reliability constraints. For the transportation of fresh agricultural product quality requirements, the difference between the obvious characteristics of attributes, the reliability theory is applied to the performance measurement of different attributes. The diagnosis is the quality of transport, determine the theoretical basis of the mode of transportation decision quality. Quality of fresh agricultural products transportation system performance, from the economic reliability, aging Three aspects of reliability, safety and reliability analysis, combing the influencing factors of transportation system reliability, and reliability attributes influence mutually the degree and extent of the final "to calculate the transport safety and reliability to measure reliability of the transportation system of fresh agricultural products, and to explore its rationality. By fault tree, the risk (or safety, transportation readiness) quality" as the research object, the design of index system, according to the logic of events on the top and bottom layers caused by the incident and intermediate event connection, draw risk system structure diagram, and based on the mapping rules into the corresponding Bayesian network, in order to calculate the risk of transportation on the top event probability and the whole system reliability analysis system, and complete failure, the bottom event exerted on the transport system reliability of the posterior probability and the change rate of the mode of transportation will. Policy belongs to the individual "irrational" activities at the same time, restricted by various conditions, embodies the subjective choice of the objective conditions of the difference, the difference mode of transportation alternatives is mainly reflected in the properties of different modes of transport, each decision-maker on transportation scheme attribute difference different sensitivity, divided into value differences, not too much difference three, different attitude under the mode of transportation decision do not value differences. Research on decision making of fresh agricultural products transportation in this paper, the ultimate use of multi attribute decision making method, the transportation safety as an important alternative attribute, reflected in the weights of risk weights for each scheme and other factors accounted for different, according to different attributes between different modes of transport, to meet the high possibility of compensation mechanism, in low degree, make corresponding decisions. Each road transportation may imply potential transportation risk, prominent scheme The difference of safety attributes can better reflect the scientificity and practicability of transportation mode decision, and more accord with the rule of preference preference under objective constraints, so as to provide ideas for solving the contradictory problems that can not be considered in time and quality in reality.

【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U116

【相似文献】