闽北高速公路交通安全风险评估

发布时间：2018-03-12 20:47

本文选题：闽北高速公路　切入点：交通安全　出处：《福建农林大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着高速公路交通迅猛发展,闽北高速公路通车里程已达757公里,贯通福银线、长深线、京台线、宁上线、浦建线、古政线等六条主线,通车里程增加、车流量逐渐加大,高速公路安全管理工作日益严峻。闽北以南平市为主,为山区地形,其地势复杂,临水、临崖；气候多变、恶劣天气常见；线形复杂,坡陡、弯急路段多见,成为交通事故发生的重点区域。目前针对闽北高速公路交通安全的研究较少,研究内容分散,且主要集中于事故后的分析评价,滞后性明显。因此,闽北高速公路交通安全管理的关键在于做好事故预防工作,控制和降低闽北高速公路交通安全风险从而提高行车安全。论文首先在对风险与风险管理相关理论研究的基础上,从不同角度阐明风险可能带来的影响,明确风险评估的重要性,并根据风险的性质特征,结合高速公路自身特点,对高速公路交通安全风险作出定义。其次,基于国内外对于高速公路交通安全的相关研究理论,通过分析高速公路交通安全影响因素,结合闽北高速公路的实际情况,进一步明确了闽北高速公路交通安全客观风险因素,并运用SPSS和Excel对2009～2014年发生在闽北高速公路的交通事故数据资料进行统计分析,得到了闽北高速公路交通事故分布的一般特征,客观确定闽北高速公路交通安全风险因素对于交通事故发生及其后果的影响。再次,将专家咨询法与层次分析法相结合实现主观赋权,主观赋权结合客观赋权,根据实际事故数据分析客观判断所得的影响结果进行修正,利用YA-AHP软件,综合实现对闽北高速公路交通安全风险因素衡量,得出风险因素权重；并通过BP神经网络,选择1trainlm学习函数作为训练函数,将所收集的事故数据资料信息进行量化作为训练样本,实现闽北高速公路交通安全风险概率预测。最后,利用风险矩阵评价与综合风险值方法实现风险评价,并借助ArcGIS地理信息软件,以南平浦建高速公路某一路段为例,建立风险专题地图直观体现路段综合风险值。通过论文的研究,系统分析了闽北高速公路交通安全风险状况,对于改变当前被动的事后应急处理有重要意义,为事前预测机制的形成提供参考。’同时,通过分析事故的成因与事故后果的相关关系,改善闽北现有高速公路的交通安全状况,便于高速公路管理人员组织管理行车安全。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of highway traffic, the mileage of the North Fujian Expressway has reached 757 kilometers. There are six main lines, including the Fu-Silver Line, the Changzhen-Shenzhen Line, the Beijing-Taiwan Line, the Ningshangshang Line, the Pujian Line, the Ancient political Line, and so on. With the increase of the mileage, the traffic flow will gradually increase. The highway safety management work is increasingly severe. Nanping City is the main terrain in the north of Fujian. Its topography is complex, waterfront, cliffs; the climate is changeable, bad weather is common; the linear shape is complex, the slope is steep, the curved section is often seen. At present, there are few researches on traffic safety of North Fujian Expressway, the research contents are scattered, and it is mainly focused on the analysis and evaluation after the accident, so the lag is obvious. The key of traffic safety management of North Fujian expressway lies in doing the accident prevention work well, controlling and reducing the traffic safety risk of the highway in the north of Fujian Province, and improving the traffic safety. Firstly, the paper studies the theory of risk and risk management. This paper clarifies the possible impact of risk from different angles, clarifies the importance of risk assessment, and defines expressway traffic safety risk according to the nature of risk and the characteristics of expressway itself. Secondly, Based on the relevant research theory of expressway traffic safety at home and abroad, by analyzing the influencing factors of expressway traffic safety and combining with the actual situation of the highway in North Fujian, the objective risk factors of traffic safety of the expressway in North Fujian are further clarified. By using SPSS and Excel, the traffic accident data of North Fujian Expressway from 2009 to 2014 are statistically analyzed, and the general characteristics of traffic accident distribution in North Fujian Expressway are obtained. Objective to determine the impact of traffic safety risk factors on traffic accidents and their consequences. Thirdly, the combination of expert consultation and AHP to achieve subjective empowerment, subjective weight combined with objective weight, According to the actual accident data analysis the influence result obtained by objective judgment carries on the revision, uses the YA-AHP software, synthetically realizes to the Fujian north highway traffic safety risk factor measurement, obtains the risk factor weight, and through the BP neural network, The 1trainlm learning function is chosen as the training function, and the collected accident data information is quantified as the training sample to realize the probability prediction of the traffic safety risk of the North Fujian Expressway. Using risk matrix evaluation and comprehensive risk value method to realize risk evaluation, and with the help of ArcGIS geographic information software, taking a section of Nanping Pujian Expressway as an example, Through the research of the paper, the paper systematically analyzes the traffic safety risk situation of the highway in the north of Fujian Province, which is of great significance to change the current passive post-emergency treatment. At the same time, by analyzing the relationship between the cause of the accident and the consequence of the accident, the traffic safety situation of the existing expressway in the north of Fujian is improved, which is convenient for the expressway managers to organize and manage the driving safety.
【学位授予单位】：福建农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

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