基于粗糙集与犹豫层次分析的北极东北航道风险评估

发布时间：2018-03-13 19:06

本文选题：犹豫层次分析法　切入点：粗糙集理论　出处：《海洋通报》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：运用风险分析理论和方法,以北极东北航道6个关键海峡为研究目标,构建东北航道自然环境风险评价指标体系;针对全球气候变暖以及海冰融化背景下北极东北航道航行安全问题,引入犹豫层次分析方法确定指标主观权重、采用粗糙集思想来确定客观权重,集成得到组合权重。基于所建风险分析模型,对其中3个关键海峡的自然环境风险进行了量化评估和时空特征分析,同时计算了2013年8月份6个关键海峡的风险度,模拟了一条最优通航线路并与同时期永盛号轮船的实际航行线路进行了比对。研究表明:(1)2000-2014年东北航道3个关键海峡自然环境风险均呈现减小趋势,红军海峡自然环境风险减小趋势最大;(2)对比3个海峡海峡自然环境风险度,德朗海峡最低,维利基茨基海峡次之,二者均适合通航;红军海峡风险度最高,且不适宜通航;(3)模型模拟路线与实际航线较吻合,对实时航行路线的选择有参考意义。
[Abstract]:The use of risk analysis theory and method, in the Arctic northeast passage 6 key channel as the research object, constructing the Northeast channel natural environmental risk evaluation index system for the safety of navigation; global warming and sea ice melting under the background of the Arctic northeast passage, introduced the analytical hierarchy process to determine the index of hesitation subjective weights, using rough set to determine the objective weights and integrated by the combined weights. The risk analysis model based on the analysis of the 3 key Strait natural environment risk evaluate and space-time characteristics, at the same time in 2013 August 6 key channel risk simulation of an optimal navigation line and actual navigation lines with the same period of Yongsheng steamer the comparison. The results show that: (1) 2000-2014 years in the Northeast passage 3 key Strait natural environment risk showed decreasing trend, the Red Sea gorge natural environment Environmental risk decreasing trend; (2) comparing the 3 Strait natural environment risk, the lowest Delang, Willie Kitskiy strait times, two are suitable for navigation; the channel risk is the highest, and not suitable for navigation; (3) model and the actual route route is consistent, and has a reference value for real time the navigation route selection.

【作者单位】：国防科技大学气象海洋学院;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;东海舰队水文气象中心;
【分类号】：U697.33

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