城市震后路网阻断预测模型

发布时间：2018-03-19 02:28

本文选题：防灾减灾　切入点：预测模型　出处：《石家庄铁道大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地震灾害频发,震区交通系统在破坏性地震发生的过程中会遭受不同程度的破坏。震后交通系统的通行能力在抗震救灾和应急救援过程中起着至关重要的作用,准确地获得并且判断震区交通线路的毁坏状况和各个路段的通行能力,是有效地开展应急和救援工作的重要基础,因此准确预测城市震后路网的阻断情况对震后救援具有重要的现实意义。针对震后城市路网的阻断问题,应用模糊聚类分析理论,建立了城市震后路网预测模型,预测震后路网阻断情况。模型以建筑物结构类型、高度、面积、层数、建筑年代、结构现状等震害影响因素作为震害因子,以建筑物倒塌结果量化值作为结果集,对建筑物震害进行预测。搜集了汶川、盈江、绵阳等多次地震中典型建筑物震害实例,建立样本数据库,构建了石家庄GIS基础数据,共采集了699条路段和4885栋建筑物的空间及属性信息,包括8个建筑物属性表和1个路段属性表。为了验证模型有效性,开发了城市震后路网阻断预测系统。本系统应用Supermap构建基础空间数据、利用SQL Server进行数据管理,使用C#环境进行系统开发,以石家庄市发生7.9级地震为例进行震后路网阻断预测。结果表明7.9级地震时石家庄市路网的平均抗阻断率约为0.65,路网在震后具备一定的通行能力。
[Abstract]:With the frequent occurrence of earthquake disasters, the traffic system in the earthquake area will be damaged to varying degrees in the process of destructive earthquake. The traffic capacity of the traffic system after the earthquake plays a vital role in the process of earthquake relief and emergency rescue. It is an important foundation for effective emergency and rescue work to obtain and judge accurately the damage condition of traffic lines and the capacity of various sections of traffic in the earthquake area. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to accurately predict the blocking situation of urban post-earthquake road network. In view of the blocking problem of post-earthquake urban road network, a prediction model of urban post-earthquake road network is established by using fuzzy cluster analysis theory. The damage factors such as structure type, height, area, number of stories, age of building, present situation of structure and so on are taken as the damage factors, and the quantitative value of the result of building collapse is taken as the result set. The earthquake damage of buildings is predicted. The earthquake damage examples of typical buildings in Wenchuan, Yingjiang and Mianyang earthquakes are collected, the sample database is established, and the basic GIS data of Shijiazhuang are constructed. The spatial and attribute information of 699 sections and 4885 buildings were collected, including 8 building attribute tables and 1 section attribute table. The system of urban post-earthquake network block prediction is developed. The system uses Supermap to construct basic spatial data, SQL Server to manage data, and C # environment to develop the system. Taking the M _ S7.9 earthquake in Shijiazhuang as an example, the results show that the average anti-blocking rate of Shijiazhuang earthquake is about 0.65, and the road network has a certain capacity after the earthquake.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄铁道大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P315.9;U491

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