弱势交通参与者冲突风险感知与避险行为研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 03:13

本文选题：混合交通　切入点：风险感知　出处：《北京理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：混合交通是世界很多城市比较常见的交通现象，尤其是机动车和非机动车混合现象，混合交通中机动车和非机动车会相互冲突干扰，导致交通效率和交通安全降低，，并容易引发事故风险。为此，认识机动车和非机动车产生冲突干扰机理，引入符合实际的模型来分析机非冲突风险感知与避险行为，为交通安全管理和交通规划提供理论依据。本文主要工作如下：（1）针对我国混合交通中机非冲突干扰的特点，对机非冲突干扰问题进行实际调查，之后根据混合交通中机动车和非机动车行为特点，分析混合交通中机非冲突干扰机理，并对机动车和非机动车冲突干扰进行了新的定义。（2）根据实测数据运用生存分析法对机非冲突风险感知进行建模分析，得到机非冲突干扰概率和距离的关系，结果显示：随着机动车和非机动车冲突干扰距离的增加，冲突风险感知敏感性逐渐升高。同时，通过将非机动车分为自行车和电动车，分别分析其风险感知敏感性，得出自行车骑行人的风险感知敏感性大于电动车骑行人的风险感知敏感性。（3）机非冲突风险感知敏感性受到多种因素影响，运用持续期模型对影响因素进行了分析，得到不同交通环境下的机非冲突风险感知敏感性，同时，运用相对风险率分析法从弱势交通参与者的角度对不同因素影响程度进行定量分析。结果显示：非机动车种类（自行车、电动车）、非机动车速度、机动车速度、高峰小时非机动车流量、高峰小时机动车流量、5分钟时间段非机动车流量和5分钟时间段机动车流量等7个因素对机非冲突干扰造成显著影响。同时，各因素影响效果的显著程度也各不相同。（4）对机动车与非机动车冲突避险距离和临界避险距离进行建模研究，得到机非冲突避险区域和临界避险区域，研究结果显示：避险区域、临界避险区域都与机动车和非机动车速度密切相关。
[Abstract]:Mixed traffic is a common traffic phenomenon in many cities all over the world, especially the mixture of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles. In mixed traffic, motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles will interfere with each other, resulting in lower traffic efficiency and traffic safety. It is easy to lead to accident risk. Therefore, the mechanism of conflict interference between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle is recognized, and a practical model is introduced to analyze the perception of non-conflict risk and the behavior of avoiding risk. To provide theoretical basis for traffic safety management and traffic planning. The main work of this paper is as follows:. 1) according to the characteristics of aircraft non-conflict interference in mixed traffic in China, the problem of non-collision interference is investigated, and then according to the behavior characteristics of motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle in mixed traffic, the mechanism of non-collision interference in hybrid traffic is analyzed. A new definition of conflict interference between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle is given. 2) based on the measured data, using survival analysis method to model and analyze the perception of aircraft non-conflict risk, the relationship between the probability and distance of aircraft non-conflict interference is obtained. The results show that: with the increase of conflict interference distance between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle, At the same time, by dividing non-motor vehicles into bicycle and electric vehicle, the sensitivity of risk perception was analyzed. The risk sensitivity of cyclists is higher than that of electric cyclists. 3) the sensitivity of aircraft non-conflict risk perception is affected by many factors. The influence factors are analyzed by using duration model, and the sensitivity of aircraft non-conflict risk perception under different traffic environment is obtained, at the same time, The relative risk rate analysis is used to analyze the influence degree of different factors from the angle of the weak traffic participants. The results show that the types of non-motor vehicles (bicycle, electric vehicle, non-motor vehicle speed, motor vehicle speed), Seven factors, such as peak hour non-motor vehicle flow, peak hour vehicle flow during 5 minutes and vehicle flow in 5 minutes, have a significant effect on non-conflict interference. The degree of significance of each factor affecting the effect is also different. (4) the model of vehicle and non-motor vehicle conflict risk avoidance distance and critical risk avoidance distance are studied, and the results show that, The critical safe havens are closely related to the speed of motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles.
【学位授予单位】：北京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.2

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