公交动态调度与站点信息发布策略协同优化

发布时间：2018-03-30 01:05

本文选题：共线线路　切入点：实时公交信息　出处：《大连海事大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：优先发展公共交通缓解交通拥堵问题已成为社会各界的共识,为此公交管理部门采取了许多措施,如进行公交动态调度、发布实时公交信息等。这些措施可能是相互影响的,如运营者期望通过公交调度增加调度车的乘客量,但乘客获得调度车的实时信息后,却选择放弃乘坐调度车。如何协调多种不同的公交运营管理措施是当今面临的重要问题。本文研究了共线公交系统(几条公交线路共享部分站点)中两种公交运营管理措施的综合运用方法,包括公交动态调度措施和各站点的实时公交信息的发布措施。首先对共线公交系统进行了定义,并对该系统中的公交调度、实时公交信息、乘车方案选择决策之间的关系进行了初步探讨。指出若忽略乘客对公交调度策略的响应行为,可能导致产生无效的公交调度策略。其次,分析了有无实时公交信息下的共线线路上的乘车方案选择行为。为刻画乘客对实时公交信息主观认知中的不确定性,引入定性-定量转化模型——云模型。基于云模型构建了实时公交信息下的乘车方案选择行为预测方法。继而,将实时公交信息下的乘车方案选择模型嵌入公交动态调度模型中,以刻画乘客对公交动态调度策略的响应行为,形成"公交动态调度-实时公交信息-乘车方案选择决策"之间的反馈模型。最后,将四种实时公交信息发布模式引入"公交动态调度-实时公交信息-乘车方案选择决策"反馈模型,进行共线公交系统各站点的实时公交信息发布模式优化。结果表明各站点采用不同的实时公交信息发布模式更能提高共线公交系统的服务水平。
[Abstract]:Giving priority to the development of public transport to alleviate traffic congestion has become the consensus of all walks of life. For this reason, the public transport management department has taken many measures, such as dynamic dispatching of public transport, issuing real-time public transport information, etc. These measures may affect each other. If the operator expects to increase the number of passengers of the dispatcher through the bus dispatch, but after the passenger obtains the real-time information of the dispatching vehicle, It is an important problem that how to coordinate many kinds of different bus operation management measures. This paper studies two kinds of public transportation in the common line public transit system (several bus lines share some stations). Comprehensive application of camp management measures, Including bus dynamic dispatch measures and real-time bus information release measures. First of all, the common line bus system is defined, and the bus dispatch and real-time bus information in the system are defined. This paper discusses the relationship between bus scheme selection and decision making, and points out that if the response behavior of passengers to bus dispatch strategy is ignored, it may lead to invalid bus dispatch strategy. Secondly, In order to describe the uncertainty of passengers' subjective cognition of real-time bus information, this paper analyzes the behavior of bus scheme selection on a common line with or without real-time bus information. The qualitative and quantitative transformation model-cloud model is introduced. Based on the cloud model, the prediction method of the bus scheme selection behavior under the real-time bus information is constructed, and then, the bus scheme selection model under the real-time bus information is embedded in the bus dynamic dispatching model. In order to describe the response behavior of passengers to the bus dynamic scheduling strategy, the feedback model between "bus dynamic Dispatch-Real time bus Information-bus Scheme Choice decision" is formed. Finally, This paper introduces four modes of real-time bus information release into the feedback model of "bus dynamic Dispatch-Real time bus Information-bus Scheme Choice decision". The results show that the different modes of real-time bus information release can improve the service level of common transit system.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491.17

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