城市轨道交通新线开通对居民出行方式选择的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 20:48

本文选题：城市轨道交通　切入点：新线　出处：《北京交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：摘要：作为城市客运交通系统的重要组成部分,城市轨道交通对缓解城市道路交通压力、促进城市发展起到了重大作用,给城市居民的出行带来了很大便利。随着我国城市轨道交通的快速发展,轨道交通新线不断建成投运,轨道交通运营里程不断增加的同时,对居民的出行尤其是新线周边居民的出行产生很大影响。本文针对城市轨道交通新线开通和居民出行方式选择的问题,在充分借鉴国内外研究经验的基础上,基于广义费用理论建立NL方式选择模型,定量分析了城市轨道交通新线开通对居民出行方式选择的影响。首先,本文对我国典型城市轨道交通线网及其客流发展历程进行了分析,进而总结了客流变化的规律,从线网规模和连通性两方面分析了客流变化的原因,并结合城市主要交通方式的特性比较,分析了城市轨道交通新线开通后对其他交通方式的影响,根据居民出行方式选择行为的过程,对影响居民出行方式选择的因素进行详细分析。其次,建立了各交通方式的出行广义费用模型,重点考虑出行经济费用、出行时间费用、出行舒适性和安全性四个方面,详细分析不同交通方式各部分费用的组成及计算方法。在此基础上,建立基于广义费用理论的NL交通方式选择影响模型。根据私人小汽车、出租车、常规公交和城市轨道交通四种交通方式之间的关联性构建选择树结构,给出了各交通方式的选择概率模型及相关参数的标定方法。最后,通过算例解析验证了模型的可行性,并计算了城市轨道交通新线开通前后周边居民出行方式的选择变化情况,计算结果显示城市轨道交通新线开通后,城市轨道交通的分担率为32.11%,私人小汽车、出租车及常规公交的分担比例分别下降了4.92%、4.39%和22.80%,其中由常规公交转移到城市轨道交通的比例最大,占城市轨道交通总转移客流的69.5%。此外,通过计算不同衔接距离和不同出行距离的条件下的交通分担情况,对居民出行方式选择进行了定量分析。
[Abstract]:Abstract: as an important part of city traffic system, city rail traffic on the city roads to ease traffic pressure, promote the development of the city has played a major role, has brought great convenience to the city residents. With the rapid development of city rail transit in China, railway new lines have been built and put into operation, railway operating mileage increasing at the same time, the residents travel especially the influence line of nearby residents. The city rail transit and the opening of the new travel mode choice, based on the full research of experience by learning, the generalized cost theory to establish NL mode choice model based on quantitative analysis of city rail transit line opened travel influence on the choice of residents.
First, this paper analyzes the development process of China's typical city rail transit network and passenger flow, and then summarizes the changes in the flow rule, analyzed the reason of the change of passenger flow from the two aspects of network size and connectivity, and combined with the characteristics of the main city traffic modes, analyzes the influence on other modes of transportation of city rail traffic after the opening of the new line, according to the process of travel mode choice behavior of residents, a detailed analysis on the influence factors of residents travel mode choice.
Secondly, establish the generalized travel model of each transportation mode, focus on travel cost, travel time and travel cost, comfort and safety of the four aspects, a detailed analysis of the composition and calculation of different traffic modes of each part of the cost method. On this basis, the establishment of selection model of NL based on the theory of generalized transportation cost. According to the construction of a private car, taxi, bus and the relationship between city rail transit four traffic modes choice tree structure, given the choice of probability model of various traffic modes and the relevant parameters of the calibration method.
Finally, through the example analysis to verify the feasibility of the model, the changes of city rail traffic before and after the opening of the new surrounding residents travel mode and calculation, the calculation results show that the city rail traffic after the opening of the new line, city rail transit share rate is 32.11%, a private car, taxi and bus sharing ratio were decreased by 4.92%, 4.39% and 22.80%, which by bus transfer to city rail traffic accounted for the largest proportion, city rail transit transfer passenger 69.5%. in addition, sharing by calculating different link distances and different trip distance under the condition of the traffic, the residents travel mode choice are quantitatively analyzed.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U12

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