北极航线开通对大北极交通运输网络的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 17:06

本文选题：北极航线　切入点：大北极　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：北极航线是指穿过北冰洋,连接太平洋北部和大西洋北部的航线。北极科考数据显示,极有可能在2050年北极出现夏季无冰状态,届时北极航线则有望全线开通。北极航线开通,受益的不仅是环北极的八个国家。其作为人类共有的财富,一旦商业通航,定会对世界交通运输系统产生影响。在一定程度上,北极航线辐射到的国家和地区非常广泛。因此,大北极概念的适时提出,无疑将有利于掌握航线开通对世界格局的全面影响,及对交通运输网络的深刻影响。依赖于海上运输的中国,处于东北亚的核心区域、北极航线的延长线上,北极航线的全线开通导致的交通运输网络的演变必将影响到中国,增加到达欧洲和北美洲的航线的同时,还能增强中国与其他大北极国家之间的贸易联系提升我国在大北极交通运输网络中的地位。因此,研究北极航线开通对大北极交通运输网络的影响以及中国应采取何种策略来应对具有十分重要的现实意义。本文首先介绍了研究背景和意义,国内外相关研究成果评述以及本文的主要主要方法和内容。本文对北极航线的发展历程进行了深刻分析,同时阐述了大北极及其交通运输网络的特点和功能,着重探讨了大北极交通运输网络的构成,在此基础上,对大北极交通运输网络的现状进行分析,预测北极航线全线开通后对大北极交通运输网络的影响,以及整个网络未来的演变趋势和发展前景。本文首先选取了影响因素,其次运用ISM模型理论对这些影响因素进行分析,得到影响交通运输网络的根本因素为政策指向和环境容量,而直接影响因素为运输供需和国家发展水平。接着深入分析北极航线对交通运输网络的影响作用。在此基础上,本文着重讨论了大北极交通运输网络在北极航线全线开通后的全面发展趋势,并在其中分析了北极航线通航后的经济性,模拟实例计算了节约的航次时间和营运成本,证明了大北极交通运输网络向更高效益发展的趋势。针对这些发展变化和趋势,最后从战略目标、战略实施、战略支撑三个方面对中国应采取的战略进行深入全面的阐述。
[Abstract]:The Arctic route is a route across the Arctic Ocean that connects the northern Pacific Ocean and the northern Atlantic Ocean.Arctic data show that the Arctic is likely to be free of summer ice in 2050, when the Arctic route is expected to open.Arctic routes are open, benefiting not just the eight countries around the Arctic.As a common wealth of mankind, once commercial navigation, it will have an impact on the world transportation system.To a certain extent, the Arctic route radiation to a wide range of countries and regions.Therefore, the timely introduction of the concept of the Great Arctic will undoubtedly be beneficial to grasp the overall impact of the opening of the route on the world pattern and the profound impact on the transportation network.China, which depends on sea transportation, is located in the core region of Northeast Asia, and the evolution of transportation network caused by the opening of the entire Arctic route will certainly affect China.By increasing the number of routes to Europe and North America, the trade links between China and other Arctic countries will be strengthened, and China's position in the transportation network of the Great Arctic will be enhanced.Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of Arctic route opening on the transportation network of the Great Arctic and what strategies should be adopted by China to deal with it.This paper first introduces the research background and significance, domestic and foreign related research results, as well as the main methods and contents of this paper.This paper makes a deep analysis of the course of development of the Arctic route, expounds the characteristics and functions of the Great Arctic and its transport network, and emphatically discusses the composition of the transportation network of the Great Arctic.This paper analyzes the present situation of the transportation network in the Great Arctic, and predicts the influence of the whole route on the transportation network in the Arctic, as well as the evolution trend and development prospect of the whole network in the future.This paper first selects the influencing factors, and then analyzes these factors by using the ISM model theory, and obtains that the basic factors affecting the transportation network are policy direction and environmental capacity.And the direct influence factor is the transport supply and demand and the national development level.Then, the effect of Arctic route on transportation network is analyzed.On this basis, this paper focuses on the overall development trend of the Great Arctic transport network after the opening of the entire Arctic route, and analyzes the economy of the Arctic route after the opening of the route.A simulation example is given to calculate the saved voyage time and operation cost, which proves the trend of the development of the transportation network in the Great Arctic towards higher efficiency.In view of these development changes and trends, the strategy that China should adopt is expounded in detail from three aspects: strategic goal, strategic implementation and strategic support.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U697.33;U113

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