基于突变理论的“育鲲”轮操作性溢油风险评估

发布时间：2018-04-11 15:30

本文选题：突变理论 + 操作性溢油　；参考：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的发展,海上船舶的数量在不断增加,海洋环境也因此遭受到了巨大的考验。在众多的海洋污染中,船舶溢油造成的危害很是严重。目前,人们对船舶的事故性溢油研究较多,而对操作性溢油的研究还不是特别深入。本文利用突变理论研究"育鲲"轮操作性溢油系统的突变性特点,能够预测相关操作发生溢油的可能性,从而为船员操作船舶提供合理化建议。首先,针对系统的突变性特点,提出将突变理论应用于船舶操作性溢油研究中。通过阅读文献及咨询专家,将操作性溢油系统状态突变分为人、船舶、管理、环境四个因素的突变,建立操作性溢油蝴蝶突变模型,并绘制基于蝴蝶模型的事故产生机理图,进而阐述"育鲲"轮操作性溢油系统突变机理,即"育鲲"轮操作性溢油事故致因机理。其次,从船舶操作的复杂性出发,其涉及到的影响因素众多,将人、船舶、管理、环境四个因素进一步细化,建立基于突变理论的"育鲲"轮操作性溢油风险评估系统。针对以往评价中过分依赖权重的不足,本文采用突变级数法对船舶操作系统进行安全评价,并制定基于突变理论的"育鲲"轮操作性溢油系统安全等级评价标准。最后,结合"育鲲"轮加注燃油操作的实例,对本文建立的评估模型加以验证,并给出合理化建议。验证结果表明,评估模型能够合理描述"育鲲"轮操作性溢油的事故产生机理,实现对船舶操作过程中系统安全状态的预测。研究成果为海上船舶操作性溢油事故研究提供了新思路,在一定程度上丰富了海上船舶溢油事故的研究内容。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, the number of ships at sea is increasing, and the marine environment has been tested greatly.In many marine pollution, the damage caused by ship oil spill is very serious.At present, there are many researches on the accident oil spill of ships, but the study on operational oil spill is not particularly thorough.In this paper, the catastrophe characteristics of the operational oil spill system of the "Yukun" wheel are studied by using the catastrophe theory, which can predict the possibility of oil spill in the relevant operations, thus providing reasonable advice for the crew to operate the ship.Firstly, according to the catastrophe characteristics of the system, the catastrophe theory is applied to the study of ship operational oil spill.By reading the literature and consulting experts, the operational oil spill system state mutation is divided into four factors: human, ship, management and environment. The operational oil spill butterfly mutation model is established, and the accident generation mechanism map based on butterfly model is drawn.Furthermore, the mechanism of the mutation of operational oil spill system of "Yukun" wheel is expounded, that is, the mechanism of oil spill accident caused by the operation of "Yukun" wheel.Secondly, considering the complexity of ship operation, there are many influencing factors involved in it. The four factors of human, ship, management and environment are further refined, and an operational oil spill risk assessment system for Yukun wheel based on catastrophe theory is established.In view of the deficiency of overreliance on weight in the past evaluation, this paper adopts the catastrophe series method to evaluate the safety of ship operating system, and formulates the safety grade evaluation standard of operational oil spill system of "Yukun" wheel based on catastrophe theory.Finally, the evaluation model established in this paper is verified with the example of fuel injection operation of Yukun wheel, and some reasonable suggestions are given.The verification results show that the evaluation model can reasonably describe the mechanism of oil spills caused by the operational oil spill of Yukun wheel and realize the prediction of the system safety state in the course of ship operation.The research results provide a new idea for the study of operational oil spill accidents of ships at sea and enrich the research contents of oil spill accidents of ships at sea to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698.7

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