基于冰情分析的北极东北航道通航条件研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 11:16

本文选题：东北航道 + 航线通航窗口　；参考：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：北极地区由于长年有浮冰覆盖,又极其寒冷,环境恶劣,致使一直无法正常通航。近年来,随着北极地区受全球环境变化影响,冰层逐渐融化,这从客观方面为商船通往北极海域提供了可能。从东北亚到达欧洲的航线中,北极东北航道相比苏伊士运河航线有着众多优势,不仅可以在航程上缩短30%,而且可以摆脱索马里海盗和印度洋海盗的威胁。海冰是影响北极东北航道通航与否的关键因素,随着北极东北航道的进一步开通,经由东北航道的商业活动也越来越频繁,加强对北极东北航道的冰情进行分析,不仅可以提升船舶航行的安全性,还可以将航运利益最大化。本文利用德国不莱梅大学2006-2015十年间的海冰密集度产品,以"永盛"轮首航北极东北航道时所经航线为例,提取了北极东北航道的冰情要素,包括:航线通航窗口、逐日海冰密集度时空分布以及海冰密集度月标准差等。根据航线冰情要素分别得出了:十年间航线通航窗口的基本情况;十年间航线所经水域的大体通航情况和主要冰障位置;7-10月份航线所经水域海冰密集度的变化动态。通过对航线冰情要素的分析,得出影响北极东北航道的两个关键海域,包括:自东西伯利亚海中部沿航线向西,至新西伯利亚群岛东部海域(定义为A航段);自拉普捷夫海中部(120° E)沿航线向西,经过维利基茨基海峡,至谢尔盖·基洛夫群岛水域(定义为B航段)。两个关键水域中,对"永盛"轮航线的通航与否起决定性作用的为B航段。本文对"永盛"轮航线以及两个关键水域的航线通航窗口的变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:"永盛"轮航线的实际通航期和B航段的实际通航期呈上升趋势,并且均通过了 90%的显著性检验,说明实际通航期的上升趋势比较明显。通过对"永盛"航线冰情要素的分析,发现该分析结果可以较好的反应出北极东北航道的实际通航情况,具有可行性。为北极东北航道通航条件研究提供了新的思路与方法。
[Abstract]:The Arctic has been unable to navigate normally because of its long ice cover, extreme cold and harsh conditions.In recent years, as the Arctic region is affected by global environmental changes, the ice gradually melts, which objectively makes it possible for merchant ships to reach the Arctic waters.In the route from Northeast Asia to Europe, the Northeast Arctic Passage has many advantages over the Suez Canal route. It can not only shorten the voyage by 30 percent, but also get rid of the threat of Somali pirates and Indian Ocean pirates.Sea ice is a key factor affecting the navigation of the North East Passage. With the further opening of the North East Passage, commercial activities through the Northeast Passage are becoming more and more frequent, so we should strengthen the analysis of the ice situation in the North East Passage.It can not only enhance the safety of navigation, but also maximize the benefits of shipping.In this paper, using the ice intensity products of Bremen University in Germany from 2006 to 2015, and taking the route of the first voyage of the North East Passage of the "Insein" as an example, the ice condition elements of the Northeast Passage of the Arctic are extracted, including the navigation window of the route.The spatial and temporal distribution of sea ice concentration and the monthly standard deviation of sea ice concentration.According to the ice condition elements of the route, the basic conditions of the navigation window in the past ten years, the general navigation situation of the waters through which the route passes during the decade, and the variation of sea ice density in the main ice barrier positions in July and October are obtained respectively.Based on the analysis of the ice condition elements of the route, it is concluded that two key sea areas affecting the North East Passage of the Arctic are: from the central part of the East Siberian Sea to the west along the route,To the eastern sea area of Novosibirsk Islands (defined as section A; from the central part of the Laptev Sea, 120 掳E) along the route westward, through the Strait of Vili Kitzki and to the waters of Sergei Killov Islands (defined as Section B).Among the two key waters, section B plays a decisive role in the navigation of the "Insein" course.In this paper, the changing trend of the navigation window of the "Yongsheng" and two key waters is analyzed. The results show that the actual navigation period of the "Yongsheng" and section B is on the rise.All of them have passed 90% significant test, which shows that the rising trend of actual navigation period is obvious.Through the analysis of the ice condition elements of the "Yongsheng" route, it is found that the result of the analysis can reflect the actual navigation situation of the North East Passage, and it is feasible.It provides a new way of thinking and method for the study of the navigation conditions of the North East Passage.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U697

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