广深运输通道内公共客流分担率预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 01:20

本文选题：运输经济 + 分担率预测　；参考：《公路交通科技》2017年04期

【摘要】：为了解决广深运输通道内长途汽车、常规铁路、高速铁路和城际铁路4种运输方式的客流分担率测算问题,采用行为调查方法调查了4种运输方式特性对旅客出行方式选择的影响。提出采用两层巢式Logit(NL)模型构建各种运输方式的客流分担率预测模型,选取经济性、舒适性、安全性、快捷性和方便性5个变量作为效用函数的构成变量。运用二阶段估计法将NL模型分解为1个二项Logit(BL)和1个多项Logit(MNL)模型后对各种运输方式的客流分担率进行求解。广深运输通道案例数据测算表明:2020年公路和铁路的客流分担率分别为16%和84%,其中铁路运输方式中的常规铁路、高速铁路和城际铁路的客流分担率分别为2%,57%和41%。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of calculating the passenger flow sharing rate of the four modes of transport in Guangzhou-Shenzhen transport corridor, such as long-distance bus, conventional railway, high-speed railway and inter-city railway,The influence of the characteristics of four modes of transportation on the choice of passenger travel mode was investigated by means of behavioral investigation.In this paper, a two-layer nested NL model is proposed to construct the forecasting model of passenger flow sharing rate of various transportation modes. Five variables, namely economy, comfort, safety, rapidity and convenience, are selected as the component variables of utility function.The NL model is decomposed into a binomial Logitine (BLL) model and a multi-term Logitine (MNLL) model by using the two-stage estimation method, and the passenger flow sharing rate of various transportation modes is solved.The case data of Guangzhou-Shenzhen transportation channel show that the passenger flow sharing rate of highway and railway is 16% and 84% respectively in 2020, in which the rate of passenger flow in conventional railway, high-speed railway and inter-city railway is 257% and 41% respectively.
【作者单位】：长安大学汽车学院;
【基金】：交通运输部应用基础研究项目(2014319812240)
【分类号】：U116

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