差异化交通出行选择行为结构模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 18:09

本文选题：城市交通 + 出行行为选择方式　；参考：《东南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国社会经济不断发展、城市化进程的不断推进以及城市机动化水平的不断提高,城市交通出行需求大幅增长,居民的出行方式选择也日趋差异化。由于不同出行者的个人、家庭、交通出行、活动链、心理特征以及出行出行者所在城市的地域和社会经济特征等属性都不尽相同,而不同的交通出行方式也在出行速度、出行成本以及运输能力上有着较大的差异。不同的出行者对应着差异化的出行选择行为,从而影响各类城市交通方式的构成比例。研究城市居民差异化出行选择行为,分析影响因素与交通方式选择行为的关联,建立交通出行选择行为的结构模型,对于优化城市交通结构,提高城市交通运行效率,缓解城市交通拥堵问题具有重要意义。本文对出行者的差异化交通出行选择行为进行了研究,得到了改变居民出行选择行为的影响因素并对其进行了相关性分析。通过非集计理论,建立了出行方式选择的结构模型,同时在模型表达式的基础上,对如何引导出行者由小汽车出行向公交出行转移的措施进行了研究。首先,基于北京市交通调查所得到的出行者的个人属性、出行特征等属性数据,通过分析和删选,选取性别、年龄、职业、收入、小汽车数量、出行目的等变量进行相关性分析。然后运用非集计模型理论,对交通出行方式选择行为建立了多项Logistic模型,通过SPSS软件对参数进行了估计,对模型进行了显著性检验,利用所得到的模型表现不同属性对出行选择概率的影响。在差异化交通出行选择行为的结构模型的基础上,针对小汽车出行者,研究了优化城市交通出行方式结构,减少小汽车出行、提高公共交分担率的政策措施,重点通过建立的Logistic模型解释了拥挤收费对交通分担率的影响方式和效果。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of our country's social economy, the advancement of urbanization and the improvement of the level of urban motorization, the demand for urban transportation travel has increased significantly, and the choice of residents' travel mode has become increasingly different. Because of the different characteristics of individual, family, traffic travel, activity chain, psychological characteristics and the regional and social economic characteristics of the city where the traveller is travelling, the different travel modes are also in the travel speed. There are great differences in travel cost and transportation capacity. Different travelers correspond to different travel choices, which affect the proportion of different urban transportation modes. This paper studies the behavior of urban residents' differentiated travel choice, analyzes the relationship between the influencing factors and the traffic mode choice behavior, and establishes the structural model of the traffic travel choice behavior, which can optimize the urban traffic structure and improve the efficiency of urban traffic operation. It is of great significance to alleviate the problem of urban traffic congestion. In this paper, the differential travel choice behavior of travelers is studied, and the influencing factors of changing residents' travel choice behavior are obtained and the correlation analysis is carried out. Based on the theory of disaggregate, the structural model of travel mode selection is established. On the basis of the expression of the model, the measures of how to guide travelers to transfer from car travel to public transportation are studied. First of all, based on the personal attributes and travel characteristics of the travelers obtained from the Beijing Traffic Survey, through analysis and deletion, we select gender, age, occupation, income, number of cars, etc. The correlation analysis of travel purpose and other variables is carried out. Then, by using disaggregate model theory, several Logistic models are established for traffic travel mode choice behavior. The parameters are estimated by SPSS software, and the significance of the model is tested. The influence of different attributes on trip selection probability is represented by the obtained model. On the basis of the structural model of differentiated traffic travel choice behavior, this paper studies the policies and measures to optimize the urban traffic travel mode structure, reduce the car travel, and improve the sharing rate of public transportation for car travelers. The Logistic model is established to explain the effect of congestion charge on the traffic share rate.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

【相似文献】