城市交通能源消费总量的测算模型与情景分析

发布时间：2018-04-23 23:06

本文选题：城市交通 + 能源　；参考：《清华大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市交通是城市经济社会活动的重要支撑。伴随着我国经济社会的快速发展,城市交通基础设施、交通工具在不断更新进步的同时也带来了一系列问题。城市交通能源消费总量的快速增长就是当前城市面临的十分重要而紧迫的问题之一。然而,城市交通系统规模巨大、部门繁杂、相互影响,针对城市交通能源消费的研究手段、统计数据都有待进一步补充和深入。已有研究中,针对国家层面的城市交通能源消费总量测算、对城市交通能耗的驱动因素的分析也都还不够充分。发达国家已经经历的机动化过程是十分宝贵的案例资料。本文首先以中国、美国、日本三个国家交通能源消费的对比为切入点,对比分析处在不同阶段的几个国家的交通能源消费特点。美国的交通能源消费反映出以小汽车为主导的交通结构将带来较高的人均燃油消耗,给能源供应带来压力;日本车均能源消耗量显著低于中美两国反映出提高车辆燃油经济性水平的重要意义。在定性认识的基础上,对城市交通能源消费总量进行定量测算同样十分重要。基于城市交通以客运交通为主体的情况,本文从汽车保有、汽车使用强度和单位能耗三个方面,分别以汽车保有量、汽车上路率和日均行驶里程、车辆百公里油耗四个自变量为基础,建立了城市交通能源消费总量测算模型。为获取汽车上路率、日均行驶里程和百公里油耗的基础信息,本文在全国范围内进行了问卷调查。基于该模型,本文根据不同的城市居民出行特征和不同的路网运行状态和技术进步水平下的单位能耗,设置了九个情景,对2012年至2030年我国城市交通能源消费总量进行了情景分析。情景分析结果表明,城市交通能耗约占交通部门总能耗的一半左右,在城市规划、交通规划、交通管理等方面采取有力措施对控制总量至关重要。通过LMDI分解理论,本文从汽车保有与使用、居民出行特征两个角度分别对引起城市交通能源消费总量变化的原因进行了分析。分析结果表明,汽车保有量的快速增加是拉动城市交通能耗总量迅速增长最为重要的直接原因,而伴随私人小汽车的不断普及,居民出行中小汽车出行比例的不断增加是城市交通能源消费总量增加的根本原因。根据以上研究成果,本文最后提出了我国城市交通能源消费总量的控制策略。
[Abstract]:Urban traffic is an important support for urban economic and social activities. With the rapid development of our country's economy and society, urban transportation infrastructure and means of transportation have brought a series of problems at the same time. The rapid growth of urban transportation energy consumption is one of the most important and urgent problems that cities are facing. However, the scale of urban transportation system is huge, the departments are complicated, and the interaction between them. The statistical data of urban transportation energy consumption need to be further supplemented and deepened. In the previous studies, the analysis of the driving factors of urban transportation energy consumption is not enough for the calculation of the total amount of urban transportation energy consumption at the national level. The motorization process already experienced by developed countries is a valuable case study. This paper firstly analyzes the characteristics of transportation energy consumption in several countries at different stages by comparing the transportation energy consumption in China, America and Japan. The transportation energy consumption in the United States reflects that the transportation structure dominated by cars will bring higher per capita fuel consumption and bring pressure to the energy supply. The energy consumption per vehicle in Japan is significantly lower than that in China and the United States, which reflects the importance of improving vehicle fuel economy. On the basis of qualitative understanding, it is also very important to measure the total amount of urban traffic energy consumption quantitatively. Based on the situation that passenger traffic is the main body of urban traffic, this paper, from three aspects of automobile retention, vehicle use intensity and unit energy consumption, respectively, is based on the vehicle ownership, the vehicle road rate and the daily mileage. Based on four independent variables of vehicle fuel consumption of 100 km, a model for calculating the total energy consumption of urban traffic is established. In order to obtain the basic information of the vehicle road rate, daily average mileage and 100 km fuel consumption, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the whole country. Based on this model, according to the different travel characteristics of urban residents, different road network operation state and energy consumption per unit under the level of technological progress, nine scenarios are set up in this paper. The total energy consumption of urban transportation in China from 2012 to 2030 was analyzed. The results of scenario analysis show that the energy consumption of urban traffic accounts for about half of the total energy consumption in the traffic sector, and it is very important to take effective measures in urban planning, traffic planning and traffic management to control the total amount. Based on the theory of LMDI decomposition, this paper analyzes the causes of the change of the total energy consumption of urban traffic from the aspects of vehicle retention and usage, and the characteristics of residents' travel. The results show that the rapid increase of vehicle ownership is the most important direct reason for the rapid growth of the total energy consumption of urban traffic, and along with the continuous popularity of private cars, The increasing proportion of car travel is the fundamental reason for the increase of urban transportation energy consumption. Based on the above research results, this paper finally puts forward the control strategy of the total energy consumption of urban transportation in China.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

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