换乘优惠对城市居民出行选择行为影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 02:24

本文选题：换乘优惠 + 巢式Logit模型　；参考：《北京交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会的发展以及机动车辆的增长,北京市的交通拥堵问题和环境问题日益严重,为解决此问题,北京市大力提倡发展高载客量、低能耗的公共交通,而经济手段则对发展公共交通、优化城市结构、保持城市可持续发展具有重要作用。本文在北京市公共交通票价调整的大背景下,通过问卷调查建立模型分析换乘优惠政策对城市居民出行选择行为的影响,最后根据结论提出相关政策优化城市居民出行结构,以此更好地发展城市公共交通,缓解城市交通拥堵。首先,本文从换乘优惠和出行行为选择两个方面进行了文献综述,在此基础上总结了换乘优惠相关研究方法及其具体体现形式,并对非集计模型理论中的多项Logit模型和巢式Logit模型进行了推导并对其模型标定及检验进行概述,在此基础上对多项Logit模型和巢式Logit模型的优缺点进行对比分析,最终选择巢式Logit模型进行本论文研究。其次,在国内外公共交通换乘优惠的基础上,提出私家车+地铁联乘优惠概念,并从个人属性、出行特征属性、交通政策属性、城市环境特性、出行心理特性和交通设施属性等六个方面对城市居民出行方式选择的影响因素进行分析。随后,采用RP和SP相结合方式进行问卷设计,并从出行者个人属性、出行特征属性、其他因素与出行方式的关系和其他出行特征属性四个方面对问卷数据进行统计分析,并在数据统计基础上建立城市居民出行方式与换乘选择巢式模型。最后,通过模型主要分析公共交通换乘优惠幅度、私家车+地铁停车费和私家车+地铁联乘优惠幅度对居民出行方式与换乘选择的影响。本文得出如下结论：从整体角度而言,公共交通换乘优惠以及私家车+地铁联乘优惠措施的实施,对于私家车直达出行者向换乘出行的转移具有一定的积极作用。从各种优惠的实施效果对比而言,在相同优惠幅度下,地面公交+地铁换乘优惠措施对私家车直达出行者吸引较大,地面公交+地面公交次之,私家车+地铁换乘优惠措施对私家车直达出行者吸引力最小。从各自优惠角度而言,当保持公共交通换乘优惠幅度一致时,相对地面公交+地面公交,地面公交+地铁换乘优惠措施吸引的转移比例更多,且换乘优惠政策主要吸引换乘者转移,诱发的直达出行转移相对较少；当私家车+地铁的停车费增大时,私家车+地铁出行者更多向地面公交+地铁转移；私家车+地铁的联乘优惠更多吸引换乘出行者,且地面公交+地铁向其转移较多。当实行多种换乘优惠措施时,其效果较单项换乘优惠措施较为明显,然而地面公交+地面公交的选择比例在降低。
[Abstract]:With the development of society and the growth of motor vehicles, traffic congestion and environmental problems in Beijing are becoming more and more serious. In order to solve this problem, Beijing strongly advocates the development of public transport with high passenger capacity and low energy consumption. Economic means play an important role in the development of public transport, optimization of urban structure, and maintenance of urban sustainable development. Under the background of public transport fare adjustment in Beijing, this paper establishes a model to analyze the influence of the preferential transfer policy on the travel choice behavior of urban residents, and finally puts forward relevant policies to optimize the travel structure of urban residents. In order to better develop urban public transport, ease urban traffic congestion. First of all, this paper summarizes the related research methods and specific forms of transfer preference from two aspects: transfer preference and travel behavior choice. In addition, several Logit models and nested Logit models in disaggregate model theory are deduced, and their calibration and verification are summarized. On this basis, the advantages and disadvantages of multiple Logit models and nested Logit models are compared and analyzed. Finally, the nested Logit model is selected for this thesis. Secondly, on the basis of the domestic and foreign public transport transfer preference, the concept of private car subway couplet preference is put forward, and from the personal attribute, the travel characteristic attribute, the transportation policy attribute, the city environment characteristic, the personal attribute, the transportation policy attribute, the city environment characteristic, This paper analyzes the influencing factors of urban residents' travel mode choice from six aspects, such as travel psychological characteristics and transportation facilities attributes. Then, the questionnaire is designed by combining RP and SP, and the questionnaire data are analyzed from four aspects: personal attribute of traveler, travel characteristic attribute, relationship between other factors and travel mode and other travel characteristic attribute. On the basis of data statistics, a nested model of travel mode and transfer selection for urban residents is established. Finally, the model mainly analyzes the influence of public transport transfer rate, private car parking fee and private car subway couplet discount on residents' travel mode and transfer choice. The conclusion of this paper is as follows: from the overall point of view, the implementation of the public transport transfer concessions and the private car subway courier preferential measures has a certain positive effect on the transfer of private car direct travelers to transfer trips. From the comparison of various preferential implementation effects, under the same preferential range, the preferential measures of ground bus subway transfer are more attractive to private car direct travelers, ground bus ground public transport is the second. Private car subway transfer concessions are least attractive for private car travelers. From their respective preferential point of view, when the preferential range of public transport transfer is the same, compared with the ground public transport, the transfer rate of the ground bus subway transfer preferential measures is more than that of the ground bus. And the preferential transfer policy mainly attracts the transfer of passengers, and induces less direct transfer; when the parking fee of private car subway increases, the private car subway travelers more transfer to the ground bus subway; Private car subway couriers are more attractive to transfer passengers, and the ground bus subway transfers to it more. When a variety of preferential transfer measures are implemented, the effect is more obvious than the single transfer preferential measures, but the selection ratio of ground public transport is decreasing.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.1

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