城市道路路网交通运行状态分析方法及应用研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 03:47

  本文选题：城市道路交通运行状态 + 时空相关性　； 参考：《北京交通大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：城市道路交通流特征分析、交通运行状态综合评价和预测理论及其应用研究是智能交通系统建设和发展的基础和关键,不仅有助于交通管理部门全面掌握路网的整体运行情况、分析交通拥堵成因及其变化规律,而且有助于出行者及时了解交通运行信息,以便躲避交通拥堵路段,降低出行成本。这些对于缓解城市交通拥堵、提升交通管理效率和交通运行信息服务质量具有非常重要的理论意义和应用价值。本文围绕缓解城市道路交通拥堵问题,面向交通管理和公众出行的实际需求,结合采集的交通流基础数据,对道路交通流时空特性分析、路网关键路段识别、路网交通运行状态综合评价、交通运行状态长时预测及其理论成果的实际应用等问题进行了深入的研究,形成了系统的道路交通运行状态分析的体系方法架构。最后通过实际应用案例分析,验证了研究成果的可行性和实用性。本论文的主要研究成果包括以下几个方面:(1)以道路交通流的时空特性为基础,提出了基于时空相关性的道路交通流时空特征分析方法,实现了对路网关键路段的有效识别。以时空相关函数作为量化指标,从时间和空间两个角度对路段交通运行状态之间的相互影响关系进行了分析。该方法首先根据复杂网络理论和交通流的影响传播关系,建立了路网空间邻接矩阵;然后引入空间延迟算子,从整体和局部两个层次定义了时空相关函数的计算方法,并分别对整体路网和局部路段在不同时间延迟和空间延迟下交通运行状态之间相互影响的动态变化规律进行了分析;最后将路段的重要性定义为路段与周边相邻路段交通状态之间相互影响程度的大小,利用逼近于理想点的排序方法,通过局部时空相关函数计算每个路段与理想点之间的贴近程度,最终实现对路段重要性的度量。实验结果表明该方法计算简单,能够对路网关键路段进行有效识别,具有可行性和实用性,为构建交通运行状态综合评价和预测模型提供了重要的理论依据。(2)以获取的实际交通流数据为基础,构建了满足不同需求的多层次的城市道路交通运行状态评价指标体系。针对交通管理、交通运行状态评价以及出行信息服务的多层次需求,确定了评价指标的选取原则和体系结构,构建了城市道路交通运行状态评价指标体系,从微观路段、中观道路、宏观路网三个层次对交通运行状态在时间和空间上的变化特征进行描述。然后根据路网结构特征,分别确定相应的微观路段、中观道路和宏观路网的评价指标,并对各个评价指标的定义、取值以及相关计算方法进行了说明。(3)以城市道路交通运行状态评价指标体系为基础,提出了基于模糊熵-熵权法的交通运行状态多指标综合评价方法。该方法充分考虑交通流的复杂性和模糊性,运用FCM聚类分析方法将交通运行状态划分为非常畅通、基本畅通、稳定通行、缓慢通行、一般拥堵和非常拥堵6个不同的状态等级,并确定了微观、中观指标对应不同状态等级的模糊区间范围。然后利用直觉模糊熵理论,将模糊区间转化为直觉模糊数,以此作为评价模型的输入,选取路段重要性和流量公里数作为评价模型的权重。综合运用多个评价指标,从微观路段、中观道路、宏观路网三个层次对交通运行状态进行了量化,实现了定性分级描述和定量分析的有机结合。实例分析表明评价结果符合人们的认知,能够满足交通管理和公众出行的需求。(4)以道路交通流时空相关性的周期性变化特征为基础,构建了基于非参数回归核估计的交通运行状态长时预测模型。该方法以预测交通运行状态综合评价结果(综合评价指数)为目标,采用非参数回归的方法来估计未来时刻交通运行状态的分布。首先根据预测目标与周边路段交通流之间时空相关性的大小,从时间、空间两个角度分析了路网其他路段对预测目标的影响,确立了模型输入的时空变量;然后利用函数型主成分分析的贴近度度量方法,对不同周期交通流时间序列之间的长期变化趋势的相似性进行了计算;最后通过选取核函数和最优窗宽,实现了对交通运行状态的长时预测。实验结果表明,该模型具有较高的预测精度,适用于其他不同层次评价指标的预测,具有普适性和可扩展性。(5)将论文理论研究与实际应用相结合,提出了北京市道路交通运行信息服务的应用案例分析。立足北京市交通管理部门和出行者的实际需求,提出了面向交通管理的交通运行信息评价统计服务和面向公众出行的交通运行信息预测预报服务,并对信息发布服务的应用方案进行了设计。以面向北京市的实际应用案例,验证了论文理论研究成果的实用性和有效性。
[Abstract]:The characteristic analysis of urban road traffic flow, the comprehensive evaluation and prediction theory of traffic operation state and its application are the foundation and key of the construction and development of the intelligent transportation system. It not only helps the traffic management department to master the overall operation of the road network in an all-round way, analyzes the cause of traffic congestion and the law of change, but also helps the travelers to be in time. In order to avoid traffic congestion and reduce travel costs, it is of great theoretical significance and application value to alleviate traffic congestion, improve traffic management efficiency and traffic information service quality. This paper focuses on alleviating traffic congestion in urban roads, facing traffic management and public exit. The actual demand of the line is combined with the basic data of the traffic flow, the analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the road traffic flow, the identification of the key sections of the road network, the comprehensive evaluation of the traffic operation state of the road network, the long time forecast of the traffic operation and the practical application of the theoretical results. In the end, the main research results of this paper include the following aspects: (1) based on the spatio-temporal characteristics of road traffic flow, a spatio-temporal feature analysis method based on spatio-temporal correlation is proposed to achieve the opposite path. The effective identification of key sections of the network is taken as the quantitative index of spatio-temporal correlation function. The interaction relationship between the traffic state of the road is analyzed from two aspects of time and space. First, the network space adjacency matrix is established based on the complex network theory and the influence of traffic flow, and then the space extension is introduced. Late operator, the calculation method of spatio-temporal correlation function is defined from the two levels of the whole and the local, and the dynamic change law of the interaction between the whole road network and the local section under the different time delay and the space delay is analyzed. Finally, the importance of the section is defined as the link and adjacent sections. The degree of mutual influence between traffic states is used to calculate the close degree between each section and the ideal point by the local spatio-temporal correlation function. The results of the experiment show that the method is simple and can effectively identify the key sections of the road network. It is feasible and practical, and provides an important theoretical basis for the construction of comprehensive evaluation and prediction model of traffic operation state. (2) based on the actual traffic flow data obtained, a multi-level urban road traffic operation state evaluation index system is constructed to meet the different needs. According to the multi-level demand of information service, the selection principle and system structure of evaluation index are determined. The evaluation index system of urban road traffic operation state is constructed. The change characteristics of traffic operation state in time and space are described from three levels of micro section, meso road and macro road network. Then, according to the characteristics of road network structure, The evaluation indexes of the corresponding micro sections, the meso road and the macro road network are determined respectively, and the definitions, values and relevant calculation methods of each evaluation index are explained. (3) based on the evaluation index system of urban road traffic operation state, a multi index comprehensive evaluation of traffic operation state based on fuzzy entropy entropy weight method is proposed. This method takes full consideration of the complexity and fuzziness of traffic flow, and uses the FCM clustering analysis method to divide the traffic state into 6 different state levels, namely, very smooth, smooth, stable, slow, common congestion and very congested, and determines the fuzzy interval model of the microscopic, meso index corresponding to different state levels. Then, using the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy theory, the fuzzy interval is transformed into the intuitionistic fuzzy number. As the input of the evaluation model, the weight of the link importance and the number of traffic kilometers is selected as the weight of the evaluation model. The traffic operation state is quantified from three levels, the micro section, the meso road and the macro view network. It realizes the organic combination of qualitative classification description and quantitative analysis. The case analysis shows that the evaluation results conform to people's cognition and can meet the needs of traffic management and public travel. (4) based on the periodic variation characteristics of the spatio-temporal correlation of road traffic flow, a long time preview of traffic operation state based on non parametric regression kernel estimation is constructed. The method uses the non parametric regression method to estimate the distribution of traffic running state in the future by using the method of non parametric regression to predict the distribution of traffic state in the future. Firstly, the road network is analyzed from two angles of time and space, according to the big small spatio-temporal correlation between the predicted target and the traffic flow of the surrounding sections. The spatial and temporal variables of the model are established by the impact of the section on the prediction target, and then the similarity between the time series of different cycle traffic flows is calculated by using the proximity measurement method of the functional principal component analysis. Finally, the traffic operation state is realized by selecting the number of kernel functions and the optimal window width. Long time prediction. The experimental results show that the model has high prediction accuracy and is suitable for other different levels of evaluation index prediction, it is universal and extensible. (5) combining the theoretical research and practical application of the paper, the application case analysis of Beijing city road traffic operation information service is put forward. Based on the Beijing traffic management department The actual demand of the door and the traveler, put forward the traffic operation information evaluation and statistics service oriented to traffic management and the traffic operation information forecast service oriented to the public travel, and design the application scheme of the information publishing service. The practical application case of Beijing is used to verify the practicability of the theoretical research results of the paper. And effectiveness.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491
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本文编号：1813627