基于城际旅客出行行为的客流敏感性分析

发布时间：2018-04-28 19:35

本文选题：城际轨道交通 + 旅客出行行为　；参考：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来城际交通运输呈现多样化趋势,综合客运通道内交通方式的竞争已经更深层次展开,城际交通通道内运输形式不再单一,城际通道间旅客出行选择行为,直接影响到运输通道的客流分配,同时也关系到客流敏感性分析的结果,因此研究城际旅客出行特征是规划和建设某一特定交通系统的前提必要条件。而城际轨道交通作为城际通道内一种高效、环保、快捷、安全的交通方式,推动城市一体化的快速进展,本文以城际轨道交通特定方式为例,分析影响城际旅客出行选择的敏感性因素,结合杭州至绍兴城际轨道交通项目前期调查的相关数据,提出基于城际旅客出行行为的敏感性分析方法。本文首先分析国内外城际旅客出行行为的研究现状,提出本次研究的选题背景、研究意义和主要研究内容,系统分析了影响城际旅客出行行为的因素,基于此提出客流敏感性分析的理论,归纳总结基于城际旅客出行行为的敏感性分析模型。其次本文将城际旅客出行行为作为研究重点,定义城际旅客的出行过程以及可供城际旅客选择的交通方式,分析城际旅客的出行需求及心理。归纳了城际的出行特征,并在此基础上,提出城际旅客出行方式选择的影响因素,将影响因素分为旅客自身属性和交通工具服务属性两大类,采用效用函数量化交通工具服务属性,依据均衡配流模型分配客流量,再采用变分不等式构造敏感性分析模型,通过计算得到影响因素敏感性变化值。最后以杭州至绍兴城际轨道交通项目为例,对杭州至绍兴不同收入的城际旅客出行选择进行客流分配,再运用敏感性分析模型,选取票价及运行时间作为敏感因素变化值,得到票价和运行时间大小变化时与客流量的增减关系。
[Abstract]:In recent years, inter-city transportation shows a diversified trend, the competition in integrated passenger transport channels has been further developed, the intercity transportation channels are no longer single, and the intercity interchannel passenger travel choice behavior. The distribution of passenger flow in transportation channels is directly affected, and the results of sensitivity analysis of passenger flow are also related. Therefore, studying the characteristics of intercity passenger travel is a prerequisite and necessary condition for planning and building a particular transportation system. As an efficient, environmentally friendly, fast and safe mode of intercity rail transit, it promotes the rapid development of urban integration. In this paper, the specific mode of intercity rail transit is taken as an example. This paper analyzes the sensitive factors that affect the travel choice of intercity passengers, and puts forward a sensitivity analysis method based on intercity passenger travel behavior based on the related data of the preliminary investigation of Hangzhou to Shaoxing intercity rail transit project. This paper first analyzes the current situation of intercity passenger travel behavior at home and abroad, puts forward the background, significance and main research content of this research, and systematically analyzes the factors that affect the intercity passenger travel behavior. Based on this, the theory of passenger flow sensitivity analysis is proposed, and the sensitivity analysis model based on intercity passenger travel behavior is summarized. Secondly, this paper focuses on the intercity passenger travel behavior, defines the intercity passenger travel process and the transportation mode available for intercity travelers, and analyzes the travel needs and psychology of intercity travelers. The characteristics of intercity travel are summarized, and on this basis, the factors affecting the choice of intercity passenger travel mode are put forward, which can be divided into two categories: the passenger's own attribute and the vehicle's service attribute. The utility function is used to quantify the vehicle service attributes, the passenger flow is allocated according to the equilibrium flow allocation model, and the sensitivity analysis model is constructed by using variational inequalities. Finally, taking the inter-city rail transit project from Hangzhou to Shaoxing as an example, the passenger flow distribution between Hangzhou and Shaoxing with different income is carried out, and then the sensitivity analysis model is used to select the ticket price and the running time as the sensitive factors. The relationship between the increase and decrease of passenger flow and the change of ticket price and running time is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U125

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