考虑节假日效应的交通枢纽客流量预测模型

发布时间：2018-05-01 06:42

本文选题：城市交通 + 客流量预测　；参考：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2015年05期

【摘要】：客流量预测是城市交通枢纽管理的基础,准确的客流量估计为交通枢纽的运力调整,管理预案的设计提供基础.目前对客流量预测的研究较多,但现有模型并未考虑节假日效应对枢纽客流量的影响.因此,本文基于多元季节性时间序列(SARIMAX)原理,建立考虑节假日效应的城市交通枢纽客流量预测模型,并以上海虹桥2号航站楼站轨道交通客流量数据为基础,对该模型进行了标定和预测.标定结果显示,在春节期间,该站点客流量将有明显的下降,而在其他法定节假日期间流量均有一定程度的提升.对模型预测值和真实值比对结果显示,该模型的平均误差在5%以内,表明该模型具有较强的实用性.
[Abstract]:Passenger flow prediction is the basis of urban transportation hub management, and accurate passenger flow estimation provides the basis for the transportation capacity adjustment and the design of management plan. At present, there are many researches on passenger flow forecasting, but the existing models do not consider the influence of holiday effect on the passenger flow of the hub. Therefore, based on the principle of multiple seasonal time series (SARIMAX), this paper establishes a passenger flow forecasting model of urban transportation hub considering the holiday effect, and based on the passenger flow data of Shanghai Hongqiao Terminal No. 2 Station, The model is calibrated and predicted. The calibration results show that during the Spring Festival period, the traffic volume of the station will decrease obviously, and the flow will increase to a certain extent during the other statutory holidays. The average error of the model is less than 5%, which shows that the model has strong practicability.
【作者单位】：同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室;青岛海信网络科技股份有限公司;
【基金】：工信部电子发展基金项目(201406)
【分类号】：U115

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