基于多元因素预判的高速公路可变限速研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 00:23

本文选题：可变限速 + 模糊控制　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：高速公路作为我国城市间的连接纽带发展迅速,但由超速行驶导致的事故频发、死亡率高严重威胁着生命及财产的安全。一方面,目前我国高速公路普遍采用全线统一的限速方式,可变限速覆盖率小并且设置不合理,包括影响因素考虑不全面并且存在频率过快驾驶员难以适应等问题。另一方面,高速公路交通环境系统是非线性、时变的,受道路线形、交通流、天气等不可控影响因素的影响,大环境无法用确定的模型进行描述。本文在对各影响因素分析研究的前提下,以模糊思想为理论基础构建了基于多元因素预判的高速公路可变限速控制模型,充分并合理考虑影响因素的影响并且通过预判的方式减少可变限速值的变换次数,以提高驾驶员舒适度、运行效率并保障行车安全。首先,分析各高速公路限速值的影响因素及其作用机理,求解各影响因素对基准限速值的修正系数,后运用层次分析的方法对各修正系数赋予权重,避免了因影响因素间相互作用导致对限速值重复修正、可变限速值偏小的情况;其次,运用模糊控制的基本思想构建了三个环境识别子模型,子模型共同组成的模糊预判系统可以对高速公路综合环境进行打分,在高速公路整体环境不佳的情况下对静态限速模型进行修正以适应真实道路环境;最后,在MATLAB以及SIMULINK的环境下对构建的多元因素预判限速控制模型进行建模、仿真,将系统输出的结果与传统限速方法得出的限速结果进行对比分析,验证本文所构建的可变限速控制模型的合理性、可行性。模糊控制是传统智能控制的一个重要的分支,是模仿人脑具有的模糊决策和推理功能来解决复杂问题的控制方法,为非线性、复杂问题的解决提供了新的方法。本文构建的基于模糊控制理论的预判系统,能够综合考虑多元因素对高速公路限速值的影响,使后续限速值控制合理化,并有效地减少高速公路可变限速值的变化次数、缩小可变限速值的浮动范围,增加驾驶员的服从度及舒适性、改善高速公路的通行能力、保证时效的最大化、减少事故的发生。
[Abstract]:Expressway is developing rapidly as a link between cities in our country, but accidents caused by overspeed frequently occur, and the high mortality rate seriously threatens the safety of life and property. On the one hand, at present, the highway of our country generally adopts the whole line unified speed limit way, the variable speed limit coverage rate is small and the setting is unreasonable, including the influence factor consideration is not comprehensive and the frequency too fast driver is difficult to adapt and so on. On the other hand, the highway traffic environment system is nonlinear, time-varying, affected by uncontrollable factors such as road alignment, traffic flow, weather and so on. In this paper, based on the fuzzy theory, the variable speed limit control model of expressway based on multiple factors prejudgment is constructed based on the analysis and research of various influencing factors. The influence of influencing factors is fully and reasonably taken into account and the number of times of changing variable speed limit is reduced by means of pre-judgment to improve driver comfort, operation efficiency and ensure driving safety. First of all, the influence factors and their action mechanism of the speed limit value of each expressway are analyzed, and the correction coefficient of each influencing factor to the benchmark speed limit value is solved, and then the weight of each correction coefficient is given by the method of analytic hierarchy process. It avoids the situation that the speed limit value is modified repeatedly because of the interaction between the influence factors, and the variable speed limit value is small. Secondly, three environmental recognition sub-models are constructed by using the basic idea of fuzzy control. The fuzzy prejudgment system composed of sub-models can grade the comprehensive environment of freeway, and modify the static speed limit model to adapt to the real road environment when the overall environment of expressway is not good. In the environment of MATLAB and SIMULINK, the multi-factor predictive speed limit control model is modeled and simulated. The system output results are compared with those obtained by the traditional speed limit method. Verify the rationality and feasibility of the variable speed limit control model constructed in this paper. Fuzzy control is an important branch of traditional intelligent control, which imitates the fuzzy decision and reasoning function of human brain to solve complex problems. It provides a new method for solving nonlinear and complex problems. The predictive system based on fuzzy control theory can synthetically consider the influence of multiple factors on the speed limit of freeway, rationalize the control of subsequent speed limit, and effectively reduce the change times of variable speed limit of expressway. It can reduce the floating range of variable speed limit, increase driver's serviceability and comfort, improve the traffic capacity of freeway, ensure the maximization of time limit, and reduce the occurrence of accidents.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491

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