公交出行分担率影响因素分析——基于南京主城区的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 09:22

本文选题：公交分担率 + 建成环境　；参考：《城市规划》2015年02期

【摘要】：首先指出除了预测手段外,运用历史数据研究建成环境等因素对出行行为的影响机制,是引导和促进公交出行的重要方法。其次,重点从研究方法与模型、自变量选择这两个角度回顾国内外在该领域的主要研究成果。再次,基于采集并经整合处理的2009年南京市主城区居民出行行为调查数据、土地利用及街道、公交等建成环境数据基础上,以公交分担率为因变量,运用多元线性回归分析探讨诸多因子对因变量的影响方式和量级。结果显示:在99%的置信度下,平均出行时耗、公交线网重复系数、距地铁站距离、公交IC卡持有比例4项因子对公交出行有显著影响;若降至90%的置信度,则增加土地利用混合度、低收入者比重、十字及以上路口密度3项因子。在使用小汽车已经成为一些人生活习惯的背景下,或在不恰当的建成环境影响下,提升路网密度非但不会促进公交出行,相反会促进小汽车使用。最后,从轨道站距设置、公交线网设计、公交IC卡发行、用地混合、路网规划等角度提出提升公交分担率的政策建议。
[Abstract]:First of all, it is pointed out that in addition to forecasting means, it is an important method to guide and promote public transport travel by using historical data to study the influence mechanism of factors such as built environment on travel behavior. Secondly, the main research results in this field are reviewed from the perspectives of research methods and models, independent variable selection. Thirdly, based on the survey data of residents' travel behavior, land use, streets, public transport and so on, which were collected and processed in 2009, the paper takes the public transport sharing rate as the dependent variable. The influence of many factors on dependent variables was studied by multiple linear regression analysis. The results show that under 99% confidence, the average travel time consumption, the repetition coefficient of bus network, the distance from subway station, the proportion of IC card have significant influence on the public transport travel, and if the confidence is reduced to 90%, the result shows that the average travel time, the network repetition coefficient, the distance from the subway station and the proportion of IC card have significant influence on the public transportation. The ratio of low income to low income and the density of crossroads and above were increased by three factors, which were mixed degree of land use, proportion of low income people and intersection density. Under the background that the use of cars has become a living habit of some people, or under the influence of improper built environment, increasing the density of road network will not promote public transportation, but will promote the use of cars. Finally, from the point of view of rail station distance setting, bus network design, bus IC card issue, land use mixing, road network planning and so on, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the public transport share rate.
【作者单位】：南京大学建筑与城市规划学院;美国加州大学伯克利分校;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51308281) 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2012728)
【分类号】：U491.17

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