基于Logit模型的城市常规公交全程车和大站快车客流分配研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 07:31

本文选题：调度 + OD分类　；参考：《北京交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着公共交通的发展,公交运营组织调度方法日益丰富,不同运营组织方式下,乘客的选择和分配问题成为合理安排公共交通运力的重点,也是发挥运营组织调度优势、提高运输效率的关键。因此,需要对采用某种新的运营组织方式后客流的分配情况进行研究,为公交运营部门合理安排运力提供参考。以往的研究中主要以优化线网整体效用为目标,忽略了运营组织方式改变以及乘客个人选择行为的差异对客流分配的影响,因此,本文以全程车和大站快车的组合调度方式为切入点,以客流OD(Origin and Destination)分类及SP(Stated Preference)问卷调查数据为基础,基于Logit模型研究开通大站快车后全程车和大站快车的客流分配问题。首先,在对国内外客流分配的实践经验以及Logit模型在客流分配中的应用情况进行综述的基础上,基于现有研究缺陷,确定以SP调查为基础、基于Logit模型对全程车和大站快车客流分配问题进行研究的研究思路。随后,以开通大站快车后公交站的性质发生变化为切入点,利用公交站的差异对不同的客流OD进行分类,并分析不同类别OD的乘客可能的选择行为,为SP调查问卷的方案设计提供参考。参考公交客流OD分类结果,设计SP调查问卷,确定个人属性及不同公交客流OD的出行方案,开展SP调查,并进行数据的收集与校核。以SP调查的数据为基础,基于Logit模型构建不同场景下的全程车和大站快车的客流分配模型,利用SAS(Statistics Analysis System)软件,进行模型的标定与检验。最后,应用本文提出的全程车和大站快车客流分配方法及模型,选取北京公交线路特8内为案例,对开通特8内快车前特8内公交线路的客流进行分配,得到开通大站快车后的特8内及特8内快公交线路的客流分配结果,并与特8内快车开通后实际运营得到的特8内和特8内快公交线路的客流数据进行对比,通过误差分析,验证本文提出的全程车和大站快车客流分配方法及模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:With the development of public transportation, the methods of bus operation organization and scheduling are becoming more and more abundant. Under the different operation organization mode, the choice and distribution of passengers becomes the focus of reasonable arrangement of public transportation capacity, and it is also to give play to the advantages of operation organization and scheduling. The key to improving transport efficiency. Therefore, it is necessary to study the distribution of passenger flow after adopting a new mode of operation organization to provide a reference for the bus operation department to arrange the transportation capacity reasonably. Previous studies have focused on optimizing the overall utility of the network, ignoring the impact of changes in operational organization and individual choices of passengers on passenger flow distribution. In this paper, based on the combined dispatching mode of whole train and large station express, and based on the classification of passenger flow OD(Origin and description and SP(Stated preference questionnaire data, based on the Logit model, this paper studies the passenger flow distribution problem of the whole train and the large station express train after the opening of the large station express train. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the practical experience of domestic and foreign passenger flow allocation and the application of Logit model in passenger flow allocation, and based on the shortcomings of existing research, it is determined that SP survey is the basis. Based on the Logit model, this paper studies the problem of passenger flow allocation between the whole train and the large station express train. Then, taking the change of the nature of the bus station after the opening of the express train station as the breakthrough point, using the difference of the bus station to classify the OD of different passenger flow, and analyze the possible choice behavior of the passengers of different types of OD. It provides reference for the scheme design of SP questionnaire. Referring to the OD classification results of bus passenger flow, the SP questionnaire is designed to determine the travel plan of individual attributes and OD of different bus flows, to carry out SP investigation, and to collect and check the data. Based on the data of SP investigation, the passenger flow distribution model of whole train and large station express under different scenarios is constructed based on Logit model. The model is calibrated and verified by using SAS(Statistics Analysis system software. Finally, using the method and model proposed in this paper to distribute the passenger flow of the whole train and the express train at the large station, the passenger flow of the public transport line within the Beijing bus line 8 is selected as a case study, and the passenger flow of the bus line within the 8 bus before the opening of the express train is allocated. The results of passenger flow distribution of the express bus lines in 8 and 8 after the opening of the express train at the big station are obtained, and compared with the passenger flow data of the express lines in 8 and 8 after the opening of the express train in 8, and the error analysis is carried out. The method and model of passenger flow distribution for whole train and express train at large station are verified in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.17

【参考文献】