船闸设计通过能力的不确定性分析

发布时间：2018-05-19 05:34

本文选题：通过能力 + 设计参数　；参考：《水运工程》2017年12期

【摘要】：船闸规划通过能力是确定船闸建设规模和标准的重要依据。由于在船闸规划阶段对船型、船闸上下游水位差以及货物流量、流向等3个关键参数选用与实际情况通常存在较大的偏差,导致预测结果出现严重的偏离,存在较大的不确定性,从而影响到船闸规模和布局论证的准确性。以江苏某船闸实际运行数据为例,运用船闸设计规范推荐的通过能力计算方法,对船闸上述3个参数在规划设计和实际运行两个不同阶段的差异进行分析对比,并对停泊条件做了符合性验算。结果表明:船闸设计参数对船闸通过能力分析结论影响巨大,按规范推荐船型和水位组合计算的船闸通过能力结果严重偏保守。在船闸规划设计阶段应该对船型及水位组合做进一步分析论证,才能提高船闸通过能力规划的准确性。
[Abstract]:The planning and passing capacity of lock is an important basis for determining the construction scale and standard of lock. In the planning stage of ship lock, the selection of three key parameters, such as ship type, upstream and downstream water level difference, cargo flow rate and flow direction, usually deviates greatly from the actual situation, which leads to the serious deviation of prediction results. There is greater uncertainty, which affects the accuracy of the scale and layout of the lock. Taking the actual operation data of a ship lock in Jiangsu Province as an example, the differences between the three parameters mentioned above in the two stages of planning, design and actual operation are analyzed and compared by using the calculation method of passing capacity recommended by the shiplock design code. The conformance of berthing condition was calculated. The results show that the design parameters of shiplock have a great influence on the analysis conclusion of the shiplock's passing capacity, and the result of the shiplock's passing capacity calculated by the combination of ship type and water level recommended according to the specifications is seriously conservative. In the stage of ship lock planning and design, the combination of ship type and water level should be further analyzed and demonstrated in order to improve the accuracy of shiplock capacity planning.
【作者单位】：京杭运河江苏省交通运输厅苏北航务管理处;
【分类号】：U641.2

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