恐怖袭击对路网影响后果研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 20:28

本文选题：恐怖袭击 + 级联失效　；参考：《西南交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：发生在地面设施上的恐怖袭击事件,极有可能对路网交通产生影响。这种外界刺激和路网单元相互作用引起的路网整体性能损失就是恐怖袭击对路网的影响后果。量化恐怖袭击对路网交通造成的影响,对全面评价恐怖袭击事件的后果、增强对恐怖袭击的应急能力有重要意义。本文通过构建网络模型,研究恐怖袭击事件对路网交通的影响后果。主要研究内容如下：首先,分析本文研究的具体情境,建立路网的网络模型,并定义相关的模型参数。恐怖袭击爆发时给居民造成很大的心理压力和恐慌情绪,居民对安全性有很高的要求。这种要求会体现在他们的路径选择中。为了体现这一特点,需要将恐怖袭击下路段的危险程度进行量化。本文将爆炸下路段承受的最大的冲击波超压作为路段危险程度,并给出计算方法。在已有研究的基础上选取冲击波超压的阈值,确定恐怖袭击直接导致的失效路段。交通网络是具有负载的网络,在评估突发事件对其影响时,必须要考虑流量的分配。本文根据出行者是否能在出行前获取失效路段的信息,将恐怖袭击对路网的影响状态分为了两个阶段：爆发期和稳定期。并且分别给出了两个时期的流量分配方式。恐怖袭击会对路网交通影响会造成两方面的后果：拓扑结构变化和运行状态变化。本文选取了拓扑结构指标和运行状态指标,对恐怖袭击的影响进行量化。并且利用层次分析法,确定了各个指标的权重。基于上述分析,本文构建了用以评价恐怖袭击对交通网络影响的数学模型,仿真结果表明本文构建的模型和算法是可行的。分析结果表明：在恐怖袭击的稳定期,路网交通所受到的影响要比在爆发期小。因此,在恐怖袭击发生后,应该尽快发布受损路段信息,劝导非必要的出行,尽快进入出行稳定期。
[Abstract]:Terrorist attacks on ground facilities are likely to have an impact on road network traffic. The overall loss of road network performance caused by external stimulation and network unit interaction is the consequence of terrorist attack on road network. It is of great significance to quantify the impact of terrorist attacks on road network traffic, to evaluate the consequences of terrorist attacks in an all-round way, and to enhance the emergency response to terrorist attacks. Based on the network model, this paper studies the impact of terrorist attacks on road network traffic. The main research contents are as follows: firstly, the specific situation of this paper is analyzed, the network model of road network is established, and the relevant model parameters are defined. Terrorist attacks caused great psychological pressure and panic to the residents, and residents have high requirements for safety. This requirement will be reflected in their path choice. In order to reflect this characteristic, it is necessary to quantify the dangerous degree of the road under the terrorist attack. In this paper, the maximum shock wave overpressure under explosion is regarded as the dangerous degree of the section, and the calculation method is given. Based on the existing research, the threshold of shock wave overpressure is selected to determine the failure section directly caused by terrorist attack. Traffic network is a load network. When evaluating the impact of unexpected events, it is necessary to consider the distribution of traffic. According to whether the traveler can obtain the information of the failure section before the trip, this paper divides the influence state of the terrorist attack on the road network into two stages: the outbreak period and the stable period. And the two periods of traffic distribution mode are given respectively. The impact of terrorist attacks on road network traffic will result in two aspects: topology change and operation state change. In this paper, the topological structure index and the running state index are selected to quantify the impact of terrorist attacks. The weight of each index is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Based on the above analysis, a mathematical model is constructed to evaluate the impact of terrorist attacks on traffic networks. The simulation results show that the proposed model and algorithm are feasible. The results show that in the stable period of terrorist attack, the road network traffic is affected less than in the outbreak period. Therefore, after the terrorist attack, we should release the damaged road information as soon as possible, persuade non-essential travel, and enter the travel stability period as soon as possible.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】