汽车船货运量预测及航线配船研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 17:17

本文选题：汽车专用船(汽车船) + 汽车出口　；参考：《华南理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：世界汽车产业持续发展,尽管经过2008年金融危机,但世界汽车产销迅速复苏并一直维持在较高发展水平,尤其是中国及其他新兴市场国家汽车产业潜力巨大。汽车海运业也随着汽车贸易的增长而不断发展,不同于干散货、集装箱航运市场的剧烈震荡,得益于汽车整车的运输需求,汽车专用船航运市场在相对稳定中不断发展进化。笔者一直从事汽车船航运工作,尤其关注该专业领域的发展,在多年工作经验的基础上,使用预测方法及线性规划方法对汽车船货运预测及航线配船进行研究。具体来讲,本文分析了汽车船航运市场现状,使用运灰色预测、布朗指数平滑预测方法及组合预测,基于我国汽车十年的出口数据,对我国汽车出口总体趋势进行了预测,并应用相同的方法分别对汽车船运输的南美航线、波斯湾航线、地中海航线的货量进行了预测,预测方法及结果对航运经营、航线配船提供了理论工具、奠定了基础。在预测结果的基础上,本文进一步采用多元线性规划方法,建立航线配船的基础模型,设定基本假设、目标函数、约束条件,通过求解得出最优的配船方案,从而得出所需运力、各个航线最合理的船舶配置,为汽车船实际经营提供了科学的方法。
[Abstract]:Despite the 2008 financial crisis, the world auto industry continues to develop, but the world auto production and sales have been recovering rapidly and have been maintained at a higher level of development, especially in China and other emerging market countries auto industry has great potential. With the growth of automobile trade, the automobile shipping industry develops continuously, which is different from dry bulk cargo, the severe shock of container shipping market, and the continuous development and evolution of the automobile special ship shipping market in relative stability, thanks to the transportation demand of the whole vehicle. The author has been engaged in the automobile ship shipping work, especially the development of this professional field. On the basis of many years' work experience, the prediction method and the linear programming method are used to study the forecast of the automobile and ship freight and the route ship assignment. Specifically, this paper analyzes the current situation of the automobile and ship shipping market, uses grey forecasting, Brownian index smoothing forecasting method and combination forecast, and forecasts the general trend of China's automobile export based on the export data of ten years of our country. The same method is used to predict the volume of the shipping routes in South America, the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea respectively. The forecasting methods and results provide a theoretical tool for shipping management and shipping line matching. On the basis of the prediction results, this paper further adopts the multivariate linear programming method, establishes the basic model of the route ship assignment, sets up the basic assumptions, the objective function, the constraint conditions, and obtains the optimal ship assignment scheme by solving the problem. Thus the required capacity and the most reasonable ship configuration for each route are obtained, which provides a scientific method for the actual operation of the vehicle and ship.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U692.33

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